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304 pages, Hardcover
Published November 15, 2022
Machine learning science had different goals from statistics. Whereas statistics emphasized being correct on average, machine learning did not require that. Instead, the goal was operational effectiveness. Predictions could have biases so long as they were better (something that was possible with powerful computers). This gave scientists a freedom to experiment and drove rapid improvements that take advantage of the rich data and fast computers that appeared over the last decade.
Traditional statistical methods require the articulation of hypotheses or at least of human intuition for model specification. Machine learning has less need to specify in advance what goes into the model and can accommodate the equivalent of much more complex models with many more interactions between variables.
Recent advances in machine learning are often referred to as advances in artificial intelligence because: (1) systems predicated on this technique learn and improve over time; (2) these systems produce significantly more-accurate predictions than other approaches under certain conditions, and some experts argue that prediction is central to intelligence; and (3) the enhanced prediction accuracy of these systems enable them to perform tasks, such as translation and navigation, that were previously considered the exclusive domain of human intelligence. We remain agnostic on the link between prediction and intelligence. None of our conclusions rely on taking a position on whether advances in prediction represent advances in intelligence. We focus on the consequences of a drop in the cost of prediction, not a drop in the cost of intelligence.