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The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future
"Your world view will transform instantly" - Salim Ismail, Best Selling Author of 'Exponential Organizations' We live in an extraordinary time. Technological advances are happening at a rate faster than our ability to understand them, and in a world that moves faster than we can imagine, we cannot afford to stand still. These advances bring efficiency and abundance—and they are profoundly deflationary. Our economic systems were built for a pre-technology era when labour and capital were inextricably linked, an era that counted on growth and inflation, an era where we made money from inefficiency. That era is over, but we keep on pretending that those economic systems still work. The only thing driving growth in the world today is easy credit, which is being created at a pace that is hard to comprehend—and with it, debt that we will never be able to pay back. As we try to artificially drive an economic system built for the past, we are creating more than just economic trouble. On our current path, our world will become profoundly more polarized and unsafe. We need to build a new framework for our local and global economies, and soon; we need to accept deflation and embrace the abundance it can bring. Otherwise, the same technology that has the power to bring abundance to us and our world will instead destroy it. In this extraordinary contrarian book, Jeff Booth, a leading mind and CEO in e-commerce and technology for 20 years, details the technological and economic realities shaping our present and our future, and the choices we face as we go forward—a potentially alarming, but deeply hopeful situation.
232 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2020
About the author
Jeff Booth
13 books85 followersJeff Booth is a visionary leader who has lived at the forefront of technology change for 20 years. He led BuildDirect, a technology company that aimed to simplify the building industry, for nearly two decades through the dot-com meltdown, the 2008 financial crisis, and many waves of technological disruption.
Jeff has been featured in Forbes, TechCrunch, Inc.com, The Globe and Mail, BNN, Fast Company, Entrepreneur, Bloomberg, TIME, and The Wall Street Journal. In 2015, he was named BC Technology Industry Association’s (BCTIA) Person of the Year, and in 2016 Goldman Sachs named him among its 100 Most Intriguing Entrepreneurs.
He is a Founding Partner of OtioLabs, Co-Founder of addyinvest.com and NocNoc, and serves on the boards of Terramera, SPUD.ca, LlamaZOO, Synthiam and the Richmond Hospital Foundation as well as numerous advisory boards.
He has been a Young Presidents Organization member since 2004 and contributes time as a founding Fellow on the Creative Destruction Lab.
Jeff has been featured in Forbes, TechCrunch, Inc.com, The Globe and Mail, BNN, Fast Company, Entrepreneur, Bloomberg, TIME, and The Wall Street Journal. In 2015, he was named BC Technology Industry Association’s (BCTIA) Person of the Year, and in 2016 Goldman Sachs named him among its 100 Most Intriguing Entrepreneurs.
He is a Founding Partner of OtioLabs, Co-Founder of addyinvest.com and NocNoc, and serves on the boards of Terramera, SPUD.ca, LlamaZOO, Synthiam and the Richmond Hospital Foundation as well as numerous advisory boards.
He has been a Young Presidents Organization member since 2004 and contributes time as a founding Fellow on the Creative Destruction Lab.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 281 reviews
April 14, 2020
Important topic. Overstretched, amateur analysis.
This could have made a respectable, long-form status update, maybe an article. So why then, like so many business books, was it artificially inflated to bursting point? Much like the debt fueled economies Booth warns us of, we’d be better settling for less.
Technology driven deflation promises to be a fascinating topic. I kept reading hoping Booth would show off something new. He tries on all sorts of themes from Maslow to AI, none giving a satisfactory fit or offering anything novel. It’s like he wrote it with a checklist of ideas he’d encountered on a recent binge of long LinkedIn posts. And that, perhaps, is where this and most other business books belong.
This could have made a respectable, long-form status update, maybe an article. So why then, like so many business books, was it artificially inflated to bursting point? Much like the debt fueled economies Booth warns us of, we’d be better settling for less.
Technology driven deflation promises to be a fascinating topic. I kept reading hoping Booth would show off something new. He tries on all sorts of themes from Maslow to AI, none giving a satisfactory fit or offering anything novel. It’s like he wrote it with a checklist of ideas he’d encountered on a recent binge of long LinkedIn posts. And that, perhaps, is where this and most other business books belong.
May 24, 2020
The premise of the book is that technological advancement creates an environment such that the cost of production and goods naturally falls over time; not only that, but this natural deflationary pressure is increasing due to the pace of technological innovation, and so if governments wish to continue printing money in an attempt to stimulate economies and create jobs, they’ll have to do so at an increasing rate, receiving increasingly little in return per currency unit printed. Sticking to the current economic game plan will require printing a destabilizing amount of money and taking on untenable levels of debt. Why not, asks Booth, simply embrace deflation?
Unfortunately this is about the extent of the argumentation. Had the premise received the treatment it deserved this would certainly have been an interesting read, but as other reviewers here have noted, the book could easily have been distilled into a blog post. I agree, but I think the verdict is actually worse. Booth’s premise is hamstrung by the evidence he offers as support. Reading like the Cliff’s Notes for Ray Kurzweil, the bulk of the book lists example after example of technologies that have been just around the corner for the last ten years. That’s fine, but then tell readers why, no, now these technologies are really just about to break out. No such evidence is given. That the book feels like it could have been published a decade ago with hardly an anachronism to tip readers off ultimately functions as evidence not of technological deflation but of Peter Thiel’s argument that there’s much less innovation going on than Silicon Valley’s boasts lead on. Although Thiel’s own tagline on this theme (“We wanted flying cards, instead we got 140 characters”) has of course been proven wrong in the fullness of time: in a doubling of productivity we now have 280 characters.
Unfortunately this is about the extent of the argumentation. Had the premise received the treatment it deserved this would certainly have been an interesting read, but as other reviewers here have noted, the book could easily have been distilled into a blog post. I agree, but I think the verdict is actually worse. Booth’s premise is hamstrung by the evidence he offers as support. Reading like the Cliff’s Notes for Ray Kurzweil, the bulk of the book lists example after example of technologies that have been just around the corner for the last ten years. That’s fine, but then tell readers why, no, now these technologies are really just about to break out. No such evidence is given. That the book feels like it could have been published a decade ago with hardly an anachronism to tip readers off ultimately functions as evidence not of technological deflation but of Peter Thiel’s argument that there’s much less innovation going on than Silicon Valley’s boasts lead on. Although Thiel’s own tagline on this theme (“We wanted flying cards, instead we got 140 characters”) has of course been proven wrong in the fullness of time: in a doubling of productivity we now have 280 characters.
May 24, 2020
“Why Deflation Is the Key to an Abundant Future”. So immediate and important this issue is that Jeff Booth decided to not tackle it at all and essentially ignore the premise throughout the book. Instead, we are given juvenile accounts on various topics, including game theory, solar energy and artificial intelligence. The reader would be right at this point to be confused regarding the purpose of the book: the content is very diluted and I struggled to remain engaged with it.
There’s a beautiful irony in the fact that a book about deflation is nothing more but an otherwise overly-inflated news article, stretched in numerous places to fit in 180 pages.
Don’t get me wrong: I totally agree with the author on the premise. I was excited about the book when I bought it. I was hoping for a mature analysis on the topic of the inadequacy of the modern economic model to adjust to the deflationary pressures of technological advancements. In a world where prosperity is predicated on the existence of inflation and higher and higher prices, a discussion about the future of the system is much needed. Unfortunately, this book is not the place to see that. Jeff Booth’s criticism fell short of substance and suggestions for a path forwards were barely substantiated.
It’s a Sunday evening read, but nothing more!
There’s a beautiful irony in the fact that a book about deflation is nothing more but an otherwise overly-inflated news article, stretched in numerous places to fit in 180 pages.
Don’t get me wrong: I totally agree with the author on the premise. I was excited about the book when I bought it. I was hoping for a mature analysis on the topic of the inadequacy of the modern economic model to adjust to the deflationary pressures of technological advancements. In a world where prosperity is predicated on the existence of inflation and higher and higher prices, a discussion about the future of the system is much needed. Unfortunately, this book is not the place to see that. Jeff Booth’s criticism fell short of substance and suggestions for a path forwards were barely substantiated.
It’s a Sunday evening read, but nothing more!
July 2, 2020
This book does a wonderful job of outlining the major shifts or disruptive changes occurring in our society due to the advancements in technology. Although, I believe the author’s time estimates is weak considering the discovery of Microcomb technology which advances the internet speeds more than a million times faster than any connection we have today, and it’s all done on existing infrastructure.
Self-Driving Cars
The book is suggesting that we will have level 4 self-driving cars within 5 years and that will foster a major disruption in many different industries and cause millions of job losses.
Waymo, the company owned by Alphabet and GM, leads the pack on level 4 self-driving cars. These companies have run extensive tests covering millions of miles on the road in California and Arizona. This first stage of self-driving cars will be on a taxi service. When manufacturers can offer rides-on-demand service for a monthly fee why would we need Uber and Lyft. Another example of job lose.
This change will disrupt many supporting industries like parking lots, insurance companies, auto repair shops, car dealerships, body shops, mechanics, garages or storage units, gas stations, and much more all due to the shift in our driving or need of automobiles.
Artificial intelligence:
The race is on to master artificial intelligence and the stakes are high. Google, Amazon, GM, Microsoft, and a few other companies are trying their best to be the leader in this new technology. This technology will give unequal power over all other types of companies, which could very well make them the most powerful and important companies to have ever existed.
That is the real race today, a race that is geopolitical in scope and scale. Look no further than Vladimir Putin’s comment about artificial intelligence in 2017, “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”
3D Printing:
3D printing is another example of disruptive technology. We are reaching a tipping point where more products will be available and manufactured with 3D printers. Adidas developed a sneaker that was printed or manufactured out of liquid materials which allowed them to print these sneakers. Just like getting all the information on Google for free, a day will come where almost anything you could want is available to be printed on demand.
Most of the cost of the products we buy today is in the production, finance, storage, and transportation. In a world where it becomes much more economical to print locally, the entire infrastructure that exists to support movement and storage of goods will no longer be needed. That entire structure will collapse. Along with that collapse go all the jobs that supported it, and what about all the tax revenue associated with this change.
Tax revenues:
How will our governments collect a tax on a digital image that could be uploaded from anywhere and printed perfectly anywhere? This dilemma will also effect our economy in a negative way.
Virtual and augmented reality
Elon Musk famously discussed the probability of us all living in a simulation. If it feels real today and is progressing quickly, the chances are quite high that as the technology gets better and we use it more, the lines blur between reality and virtual reality.
The book states: At what point does virtual or mixed reality become so good that it dramatically changes how we live our lives? For example, is it that difficult to imagine a world where people spend more of their time in mixed reality and less time travelling? But when we can genuinely feel the rush of skiing the Alps in the morning and the quiet of a beach cabana in Fiji in the afternoon with interactions like we were really there, would we still endure the hassle of waiting in lines at airports, travel, and lost baggage to experience it for real?
Star Trek Holodeck here we come.
Energy:
At present, the cost of solar is dropping exponentially and the technical advancements of solar infrastructure are improving beyond measure, so all the experts suggest that solar will become our major source of energy as our technology develops.
Unlike many other forms of energy that require extensive operating and maintenance costs, the cost to maintain solar is low. As we reduce the need for fossil fueled energy and replace it with more efficient renewable energies there will be an additional job reduction. Just think about all the jobs that are associated with the energy industries. It’s scary to say the least.
Healthcare:
Apple’s watch is a good example of the future of healthcare on your wrist. Imagine if Apple provided a service to digitize your DNA, so that they could combine it with your fitness profile. You could also provide your health records and medicines you take. This could yield extraordinary benefits for a positive health outcomes.
The book points out that this would be bad news for jobs. “Why? Look at how many jobs come from waste in the system caused by information asymmetry. Think of a case where you go to multiple doctors—family doctor, radiologist, gastroenterologist, other specialists—who each have their own staff and each only have a part of your information. As you are treated, repetitive trips, further specialization, and often misdiagnoses are all part of the overall health budget. When artificial intelligence reduces that waste and increases the benefits to society, as a by-product of removing the waste in the system, it reduces the number of jobs in healthcare. With more than $3.5 trillion of annual spending and 19 percent of the US GDP in healthcare, that could mean a lot of jobs.”
All World Powers are Competing for dominance
China itself may have a unique advantage in the artificial intelligence race, because of the size of its population and its state control, which could allow data collection at a faster rate. Once established, it is easy to see how a digital surveillance system owned by a government and driven by artificial intelligence could gain tremendous power and leverage over its citizens.
The book states, there is high risk of AI being controlled by a corporation or government. Goals for an organization or government may be very different than that of a population. If AI is owned by corporations or governments, then the benefits will accrue to very few.
We need to decentralize AI and open the benefits to everyone. The downside of having any corporation or government with as much control over something that will become so powerful is scary.
The dept and inflationary structure
The author also talked about the debt and inflationary statues we’re experienced in the past, and how that is changing to a deflationary structure that will have extreme ramification to our economy. This is too detailed to review here and needs to be read by all of us.
Self-Driving Cars
The book is suggesting that we will have level 4 self-driving cars within 5 years and that will foster a major disruption in many different industries and cause millions of job losses.
Waymo, the company owned by Alphabet and GM, leads the pack on level 4 self-driving cars. These companies have run extensive tests covering millions of miles on the road in California and Arizona. This first stage of self-driving cars will be on a taxi service. When manufacturers can offer rides-on-demand service for a monthly fee why would we need Uber and Lyft. Another example of job lose.
This change will disrupt many supporting industries like parking lots, insurance companies, auto repair shops, car dealerships, body shops, mechanics, garages or storage units, gas stations, and much more all due to the shift in our driving or need of automobiles.
Artificial intelligence:
The race is on to master artificial intelligence and the stakes are high. Google, Amazon, GM, Microsoft, and a few other companies are trying their best to be the leader in this new technology. This technology will give unequal power over all other types of companies, which could very well make them the most powerful and important companies to have ever existed.
That is the real race today, a race that is geopolitical in scope and scale. Look no further than Vladimir Putin’s comment about artificial intelligence in 2017, “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.”
3D Printing:
3D printing is another example of disruptive technology. We are reaching a tipping point where more products will be available and manufactured with 3D printers. Adidas developed a sneaker that was printed or manufactured out of liquid materials which allowed them to print these sneakers. Just like getting all the information on Google for free, a day will come where almost anything you could want is available to be printed on demand.
Most of the cost of the products we buy today is in the production, finance, storage, and transportation. In a world where it becomes much more economical to print locally, the entire infrastructure that exists to support movement and storage of goods will no longer be needed. That entire structure will collapse. Along with that collapse go all the jobs that supported it, and what about all the tax revenue associated with this change.
Tax revenues:
How will our governments collect a tax on a digital image that could be uploaded from anywhere and printed perfectly anywhere? This dilemma will also effect our economy in a negative way.
Virtual and augmented reality
Elon Musk famously discussed the probability of us all living in a simulation. If it feels real today and is progressing quickly, the chances are quite high that as the technology gets better and we use it more, the lines blur between reality and virtual reality.
The book states: At what point does virtual or mixed reality become so good that it dramatically changes how we live our lives? For example, is it that difficult to imagine a world where people spend more of their time in mixed reality and less time travelling? But when we can genuinely feel the rush of skiing the Alps in the morning and the quiet of a beach cabana in Fiji in the afternoon with interactions like we were really there, would we still endure the hassle of waiting in lines at airports, travel, and lost baggage to experience it for real?
Star Trek Holodeck here we come.
Energy:
At present, the cost of solar is dropping exponentially and the technical advancements of solar infrastructure are improving beyond measure, so all the experts suggest that solar will become our major source of energy as our technology develops.
Unlike many other forms of energy that require extensive operating and maintenance costs, the cost to maintain solar is low. As we reduce the need for fossil fueled energy and replace it with more efficient renewable energies there will be an additional job reduction. Just think about all the jobs that are associated with the energy industries. It’s scary to say the least.
Healthcare:
Apple’s watch is a good example of the future of healthcare on your wrist. Imagine if Apple provided a service to digitize your DNA, so that they could combine it with your fitness profile. You could also provide your health records and medicines you take. This could yield extraordinary benefits for a positive health outcomes.
The book points out that this would be bad news for jobs. “Why? Look at how many jobs come from waste in the system caused by information asymmetry. Think of a case where you go to multiple doctors—family doctor, radiologist, gastroenterologist, other specialists—who each have their own staff and each only have a part of your information. As you are treated, repetitive trips, further specialization, and often misdiagnoses are all part of the overall health budget. When artificial intelligence reduces that waste and increases the benefits to society, as a by-product of removing the waste in the system, it reduces the number of jobs in healthcare. With more than $3.5 trillion of annual spending and 19 percent of the US GDP in healthcare, that could mean a lot of jobs.”
All World Powers are Competing for dominance
China itself may have a unique advantage in the artificial intelligence race, because of the size of its population and its state control, which could allow data collection at a faster rate. Once established, it is easy to see how a digital surveillance system owned by a government and driven by artificial intelligence could gain tremendous power and leverage over its citizens.
The book states, there is high risk of AI being controlled by a corporation or government. Goals for an organization or government may be very different than that of a population. If AI is owned by corporations or governments, then the benefits will accrue to very few.
We need to decentralize AI and open the benefits to everyone. The downside of having any corporation or government with as much control over something that will become so powerful is scary.
The dept and inflationary structure
The author also talked about the debt and inflationary statues we’re experienced in the past, and how that is changing to a deflationary structure that will have extreme ramification to our economy. This is too detailed to review here and needs to be read by all of us.
December 31, 2020
Suntem ca loviți în cap, după o perioadă de patru luni în care am tot încercat să înțelegem ce ni se întâmplă. Adică, frate, când ne întoarcem la ale noastre, să muncim ca să plătim o rată la casă și să adunăm cât e anul de lung ceva bănuți ca să mergem în concediu. Sau să ne luăm o mașină. Bref, când revenim, frate, la cursa șobolanului, despre care vorbește Kiyosaki, cursă care le place atât de mult celor mai mulți dintre noi, pentru că nu-i obligă să gândească, ci doar să muncească pentru a consuma și pentru a plăti datorii în care se bagă aiurea?
Pandemia a făcut și un lucru care ar putea fi foarte bun. Ne-a oprit din ritmul nostru nebun, din goana pe care o credeam practic singura opțiune pe care o avem. Și ne-a arătat că se poate și altfel, că poate altfel ar fi mai bine. Doar că ”altfel” ăsta nu le convine guvernelor, nu le convine corporațiilor, nu le convine celor foarte puțini și foarte bogați, de aici și nemulțumirile oamenilor care cresc și neîncrederea pe care aceștia o demonstrează din ce în ce mai vocal peste tot în lume. Și mă întreb: când vom accepta cu toții că nu mai putem funcționa în situația actuală într-o paradigmă care ține de trecut. Așa cum școala ne pregătește copiii pentru trecut, cam așa se întâmplă cu felul în care funcționează societatea în întregul ei. Ne agățăm de mecanisme care nu mai funcționează la nivelul lumii decât dacă tipărim bani. De pildă, noi, românii, țopăim de bucurie că urmează să ne intre 33 de miliarde de euro în buzunare, bani cu care sperăm să ne facem o țară. Ne întrebăm prea rar de unde vin acești bani și de ce nu se aruncă astfel cu bani în țările sărace pentru a fi ridicate. Pentru că asta înseamnă creșterea datoriilor, inflația fiind motorul de până acum al lumii industrializate. Un exemplu: în anul 2000, datoria mondială era undeva la 62 de trilioane de dolari americani. Toată economia lumii era undeva la 33,5 trilioane. De atunci, deci, în 20 de ani, economia mondială a crescut la 80 de trilioane. E, la cât credeți că s-a dus datoria mondială? 247 de trilioane, tati. Cu alte cuvinte, spune Jeff Booth, unde am găsit aceste informații, a fost nevoie de o datorie de 185 de trilioane pentru a genera o creștere economică globală de 46 de trilioane. De fapt, despre asta este mirajul creșterii economice. Iar acum trecem printr-o perioadă nasoală, în care trebuie să repornim economia, nu? Asta ni se spune. Ce fac guvernele când au nevoie de bani? Păi, nenea Ray Dalio, pe care vi l-am recomandat aici cu Principii, dar care e de citit și cu Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crisis, spune că de obicei tiparnița e soluția aleasă, dar fiindcă austeritatea e dureroasă pentru populație, restructurarea datoriilor face să dispară multă bogăție prea rapid, iar taxarea masivă a bogăției nu prea se întâmplă fără revoluții, adică oamenii trebuie să ia cu forța averea bogaților. E, aceste revoluții se văd din ce în ce mai des peste tot, odată cu ridicarea populismului protejat și încurajat cumva de marii jucători gen google, facebook, care generează monopoluri foarte periculoase.
Ei bine, autorul propune o soluție care funcționează când vine vorba despre tehnologie, unde ne-am obișnuit să primim mult mai mult pentru din ce în ce mai puțini bani. Și crede că doar astfel putem rezolva problemele.
De ce e bună cartea asta? Păi, în primul rând, te provoacă. Te provoacă serios. Apoi, te face să te întrebi dacă nu cumva trebuie să privim lumea cu totul altfel, nu în termeni de muncă și iar muncă și bani și profit cu orice preț. Recomand, probabil voi discuta destul de mult în perioada următoare despre ideile din această carte, încercând să le adaptez la realitatea românească.
Pandemia a făcut și un lucru care ar putea fi foarte bun. Ne-a oprit din ritmul nostru nebun, din goana pe care o credeam practic singura opțiune pe care o avem. Și ne-a arătat că se poate și altfel, că poate altfel ar fi mai bine. Doar că ”altfel” ăsta nu le convine guvernelor, nu le convine corporațiilor, nu le convine celor foarte puțini și foarte bogați, de aici și nemulțumirile oamenilor care cresc și neîncrederea pe care aceștia o demonstrează din ce în ce mai vocal peste tot în lume. Și mă întreb: când vom accepta cu toții că nu mai putem funcționa în situația actuală într-o paradigmă care ține de trecut. Așa cum școala ne pregătește copiii pentru trecut, cam așa se întâmplă cu felul în care funcționează societatea în întregul ei. Ne agățăm de mecanisme care nu mai funcționează la nivelul lumii decât dacă tipărim bani. De pildă, noi, românii, țopăim de bucurie că urmează să ne intre 33 de miliarde de euro în buzunare, bani cu care sperăm să ne facem o țară. Ne întrebăm prea rar de unde vin acești bani și de ce nu se aruncă astfel cu bani în țările sărace pentru a fi ridicate. Pentru că asta înseamnă creșterea datoriilor, inflația fiind motorul de până acum al lumii industrializate. Un exemplu: în anul 2000, datoria mondială era undeva la 62 de trilioane de dolari americani. Toată economia lumii era undeva la 33,5 trilioane. De atunci, deci, în 20 de ani, economia mondială a crescut la 80 de trilioane. E, la cât credeți că s-a dus datoria mondială? 247 de trilioane, tati. Cu alte cuvinte, spune Jeff Booth, unde am găsit aceste informații, a fost nevoie de o datorie de 185 de trilioane pentru a genera o creștere economică globală de 46 de trilioane. De fapt, despre asta este mirajul creșterii economice. Iar acum trecem printr-o perioadă nasoală, în care trebuie să repornim economia, nu? Asta ni se spune. Ce fac guvernele când au nevoie de bani? Păi, nenea Ray Dalio, pe care vi l-am recomandat aici cu Principii, dar care e de citit și cu Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crisis, spune că de obicei tiparnița e soluția aleasă, dar fiindcă austeritatea e dureroasă pentru populație, restructurarea datoriilor face să dispară multă bogăție prea rapid, iar taxarea masivă a bogăției nu prea se întâmplă fără revoluții, adică oamenii trebuie să ia cu forța averea bogaților. E, aceste revoluții se văd din ce în ce mai des peste tot, odată cu ridicarea populismului protejat și încurajat cumva de marii jucători gen google, facebook, care generează monopoluri foarte periculoase.
Ei bine, autorul propune o soluție care funcționează când vine vorba despre tehnologie, unde ne-am obișnuit să primim mult mai mult pentru din ce în ce mai puțini bani. Și crede că doar astfel putem rezolva problemele.
De ce e bună cartea asta? Păi, în primul rând, te provoacă. Te provoacă serios. Apoi, te face să te întrebi dacă nu cumva trebuie să privim lumea cu totul altfel, nu în termeni de muncă și iar muncă și bani și profit cu orice preț. Recomand, probabil voi discuta destul de mult în perioada următoare despre ideile din această carte, încercând să le adaptez la realitatea românească.
May 20, 2020
The Investor Podcast guys were saying very positive words about the book. I was going through the book and I was waiting when it will get more in detail and interesting. Then the book finished and I am disappointed. It was like a long introduction to a great book without the actual book.
For example, one premise in the book is that we don't need so many jobs in the future because technology will replace people with automation. I don't agree with that because as society gets more complicated, more new jobs are created.
There were few good ideas but in general, it is a shallow book that is all over the current innovation. In my mind, the author did not explain clear enough why deflation is inevitable. And would be the timeline in his mind.
Read if you don't know much what is happening in research and development.
For example, one premise in the book is that we don't need so many jobs in the future because technology will replace people with automation. I don't agree with that because as society gets more complicated, more new jobs are created.
There were few good ideas but in general, it is a shallow book that is all over the current innovation. In my mind, the author did not explain clear enough why deflation is inevitable. And would be the timeline in his mind.
Read if you don't know much what is happening in research and development.
July 8, 2020
Real Vision interview the Fed’s losing battle w/ deflation
https://youtu.be/F8lfLqnhuGs
Talked about in TIP:
https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast...
Interview on TIP:
https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast...
COVID-19: Potential Implications for Global Supply Chains
Vikram Mansharamani, Lecturer Harvard University
The world is facing tectonic change based on existing trends and the impact of the global pandemic.
The world had already been seeing the results of consumer-led economies, overcapacity in China, the acceleration of technology with more output and less input, the changing nature of work, and older demographics.
The explosion of supply in energy and less demand will lead to deflationary order.
Supply chains will also be affected by currency wars, nationalism, and protectionism, which are all on the rise, in addition to COVID-19 lockdowns making some supplies and parts unavailable.
Global supply chains will be shifting in fundamental ways as a result of the changing environment.
https://info.cfainstitute.org/73-cfa-...
Stanley Druckenmiller ECNY Jun 2019
https://youtu.be/QRnbnCxno9k
What if energy was free?
Swanson's law: the price of solar tends to drop 20% for every doubling of shipped volume.
‘Wells, Wires & Wheels - the tough road ahead for oil’ Mark Lewis, BNP Paribas
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/a...
McKinsey on the future of mobility
https://www.mckinsey.com/quarterly/th...
AI impact on health care
Artificial General Intelligence & the Singularity
Network effects eg Bitcoin
https://youtu.be/F8lfLqnhuGs
Talked about in TIP:
https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast...
Interview on TIP:
https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast...
COVID-19: Potential Implications for Global Supply Chains
Vikram Mansharamani, Lecturer Harvard University
The world is facing tectonic change based on existing trends and the impact of the global pandemic.
The world had already been seeing the results of consumer-led economies, overcapacity in China, the acceleration of technology with more output and less input, the changing nature of work, and older demographics.
The explosion of supply in energy and less demand will lead to deflationary order.
Supply chains will also be affected by currency wars, nationalism, and protectionism, which are all on the rise, in addition to COVID-19 lockdowns making some supplies and parts unavailable.
Global supply chains will be shifting in fundamental ways as a result of the changing environment.
https://info.cfainstitute.org/73-cfa-...
Stanley Druckenmiller ECNY Jun 2019
https://youtu.be/QRnbnCxno9k
What if energy was free?
Swanson's law: the price of solar tends to drop 20% for every doubling of shipped volume.
‘Wells, Wires & Wheels - the tough road ahead for oil’ Mark Lewis, BNP Paribas
https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/a...
McKinsey on the future of mobility
https://www.mckinsey.com/quarterly/th...
AI impact on health care
Artificial General Intelligence & the Singularity
Network effects eg Bitcoin
April 16, 2020
Juxtaposition of Inflation, Technology, Deflation, Energy, AI, Manipulation, and Social Polarization. I have read other books about all of these topics and I believe there is a unification to them. I struggle to find a synthesis that others would find convincing. This author doesn't bother. Everything has just been thrown in. Transitions seem jarring sometimes and it's hard to follow the development of a thesis. But there is something to that. Many of the discussions are very insightful. One observation I liked was how in an exponential system it is easy to overestimate the significance of early doublings and underestimate later ones. The discussion of the deflationary impact of technology and particularly AI is also insightful. In fact, the discussion of AI is quite good. The topic is very important, and the implications are going to be profound. This book will not spoon feed you answers but it does do a great job of opening discussions.
August 27, 2020
I've been trying to explain this idea to people forever. The idea that this 2% inflation target is not being met because technology was driving the costs of some goods down. Why do phones cost the same every year even though they keep getting better? Why are some goods cheaper than ever on Amazon and Alibaba? Where was the inflation occurring?
This book has the answer I was unable to articulate. Technology is deflationary.
Unfortunately that nugget of good information is contained mostly in the first chapter of the book (with some what should we do about it in the final chapter of the book - hint: bitcoin [duh])
The middle chapters read like Andrew Yang's The War on Normal People - a scary and exciting picture of things to come from technology painted by a tech entrepreneur who has made his fortune and is now out to make the world a better place.
To be honest, I barely remember any of those middle chapters. I've already heard all the theories about AI and job loss and robot workers and how polarized the world is and the rise of populism - it's exhausting even recounting these ideas.
I was primed to love this book as the author shares my views on inflation and bitcoin (my two favorite things to talk about), but I would have liked more of the author's opinion and analysis of what to do about it rather than explaining to me how the world is doomed (which seems to be a pretty fashionable thing to talk about).
That being said the timing of this book (published January of 2020) is remarkable. It was pre-trillion(s) dollar stimulus, pre-bitcoin halving, pre-coronavirus (the acceleration of all these futuristic trends). And I'm sure Jeff Booth has many lucrative speaking opportunities and doesn't care about my 3 star review of his book (that I mostly agree with and really enjoyed some parts of).
C'est la vie.
This book has the answer I was unable to articulate. Technology is deflationary.
Unfortunately that nugget of good information is contained mostly in the first chapter of the book (with some what should we do about it in the final chapter of the book - hint: bitcoin [duh])
The middle chapters read like Andrew Yang's The War on Normal People - a scary and exciting picture of things to come from technology painted by a tech entrepreneur who has made his fortune and is now out to make the world a better place.
To be honest, I barely remember any of those middle chapters. I've already heard all the theories about AI and job loss and robot workers and how polarized the world is and the rise of populism - it's exhausting even recounting these ideas.
I was primed to love this book as the author shares my views on inflation and bitcoin (my two favorite things to talk about), but I would have liked more of the author's opinion and analysis of what to do about it rather than explaining to me how the world is doomed (which seems to be a pretty fashionable thing to talk about).
That being said the timing of this book (published January of 2020) is remarkable. It was pre-trillion(s) dollar stimulus, pre-bitcoin halving, pre-coronavirus (the acceleration of all these futuristic trends). And I'm sure Jeff Booth has many lucrative speaking opportunities and doesn't care about my 3 star review of his book (that I mostly agree with and really enjoyed some parts of).
C'est la vie.
October 1, 2020
Tries to cover a lot of topics, doesn’t answer much
I think the book reads well and asks a very interesting question (which is why I bought the book) - why not embrace deflation and end the seemingly never-ending debt cycle? But instead of exploring this in rigorous detail he provides some basic concepts (great for people new to economics / finance / tech but nothing really new, and then in the conclusion asks the question again: why don’t we just embrace deflation? Which is exactly what I was hoping he’d provide some strong points for!
Perhaps I was hoping too much for such a huge topic - but this is 200+ pages of generalist knowledge, and reads like a tech CEO who read a few interesting books to quote from, has a lot of cash and doesn’t want the government to inflate it away with expansionary monetary policy (fair enough). In my humble opinion, not a single policy maker would be influenced by this. I surely wasn’t.
I think the book reads well and asks a very interesting question (which is why I bought the book) - why not embrace deflation and end the seemingly never-ending debt cycle? But instead of exploring this in rigorous detail he provides some basic concepts (great for people new to economics / finance / tech but nothing really new, and then in the conclusion asks the question again: why don’t we just embrace deflation? Which is exactly what I was hoping he’d provide some strong points for!
Perhaps I was hoping too much for such a huge topic - but this is 200+ pages of generalist knowledge, and reads like a tech CEO who read a few interesting books to quote from, has a lot of cash and doesn’t want the government to inflate it away with expansionary monetary policy (fair enough). In my humble opinion, not a single policy maker would be influenced by this. I surely wasn’t.
November 11, 2020
Item 1: Technology reduces time and labor required to produce more and more of what we use and consume every day. This reduction reduces prices (creating deflation) but also removes jobs.
Item 2: Technology tends to increase in exponentials, especially pronounced in computers. And many think we're approaching the steep part.
Item 3: Our financial system is debt-based, needing constant inflation to reduce the "cost" of the debt. Practically all governments are in massive debt (measured in percentages to multiples of GDP) which ties them to the need for constant inflation to survive.
Conclusion: If these are true, we're entering into an era of exponential deflation, exponential job loss to automation and AI while the banking/government system's fate is entirely chained to inflation. In a perfect world with a smoothly handled transition, this could lead to technology creating unbelievably cheap goods (massive deflation) requiring minimal hours worked and lead to a Star Trek-style idealistic world. In a more likely case, governments will fight deflation long past the point where doing so is feasible, thus worsening the crash when it inevitably comes. If civilization survives the crash, we could have an unimaginably better world with inconceivably low costs of living married to marvels of technological progress. If...
Item 2: Technology tends to increase in exponentials, especially pronounced in computers. And many think we're approaching the steep part.
Item 3: Our financial system is debt-based, needing constant inflation to reduce the "cost" of the debt. Practically all governments are in massive debt (measured in percentages to multiples of GDP) which ties them to the need for constant inflation to survive.
Conclusion: If these are true, we're entering into an era of exponential deflation, exponential job loss to automation and AI while the banking/government system's fate is entirely chained to inflation. In a perfect world with a smoothly handled transition, this could lead to technology creating unbelievably cheap goods (massive deflation) requiring minimal hours worked and lead to a Star Trek-style idealistic world. In a more likely case, governments will fight deflation long past the point where doing so is feasible, thus worsening the crash when it inevitably comes. If civilization survives the crash, we could have an unimaginably better world with inconceivably low costs of living married to marvels of technological progress. If...
June 30, 2020
Good premise & topic: Technology will drive deflation, so how should we re-examine the foundations of our economies.
However, beyond a good premise and questions, the book was supported with a tired list of the usual AI, Bitcoin, VR/AR, buzzword topics - many of which made leaps to endpoints that weren't supported.
Not a *bad* book, but take with grain of salt, and it'll give you some stuff to think about
However, beyond a good premise and questions, the book was supported with a tired list of the usual AI, Bitcoin, VR/AR, buzzword topics - many of which made leaps to endpoints that weren't supported.
Not a *bad* book, but take with grain of salt, and it'll give you some stuff to think about
June 20, 2021
Top-3 books where the world/economy is heading
One of the best books I have read ever about how world/economy works and where the world is headed in the near future. Absolutely great combination of history of economics, technology and human psychology.
I’ll write a more comprehensive review later.
One of the best books I have read ever about how world/economy works and where the world is headed in the near future. Absolutely great combination of history of economics, technology and human psychology.
I’ll write a more comprehensive review later.
September 10, 2022
The premise of this book is that technology is deflationary and that's a problem because our economic system is antiquated and built for an inflationary system. Technology and AI can do things better and faster than humans, thus reducing waste and deflating costs, but also eliminating massive amounts of jobs.
Overall, I didn't enjoy this book for two main reasons. The first is that the unique content of this book is almost nil, and he doesn't keep focus throughout. It's as if he had a good blog post idea but tried to force it into book length production. The second reason for disliking this book is his social leftism plugs and anti-religion remarks which are constant and distracting.
Numerous reviewers have already highlighted his lack of content and focus, so I'll focus on the distracting leftist elements. First, there are numerous references to Trump and Xenophobia, building walls and xenophobia, populism and you guess it, xenophobia. When talking about the Nazi party, he also says there are parallels to our government today (he wrote this while Trump was in office). This bias makes some of the legitimate economic critiques of Trump (like pointing out the downside to tariffs) harder to swallow because there is a clear bias against him.
He also takes numerous jabs at religion, some of it more veiled like: "beliefs are hard to change, even when the facts are on your side. Entire populations make up stories that guide their actions, without realizing that much of it is a figment of their imaginations." There are constant anti-religion digs throughout the book where almost every negative example he provides is from religion and he often pits that against "science" as if they were mutually exclusive.
He also talks about how bad fossil fuels are (climate change doomer) and how solar is our best hope. He predicts that within the next 5-30 years machines will be smarter that humans in a generalized way and we may not be top of the food chain anymore. This flows from his evolutionary worldview where a sovereign God is not in charge and upholding all things by the word of his power (Heb 1:3) but instead everything is the way it is by chance. This is not a fear of mine because of God is sovereign (even if you don't believe that, he still is) and he created humans were created to have dominion over the earth (Gen. 1:26). I therefore don't have fears of aliens, animals, AI, or chance, changing that while God sits on the throne.
I will give him props on his conclusion though which is solid. He recommends embracing technology deflation, allowing it to re-order our world instead of using centralized power to delay the inevitable. He also states in his conclusion that it is necessary to switch to a hard-money system like Bitcoin (ending the fiat standard). But ultimately, this book is skippable because the author has an unchecked bias, little unique contributions, and a lack of focus.
Overall, I didn't enjoy this book for two main reasons. The first is that the unique content of this book is almost nil, and he doesn't keep focus throughout. It's as if he had a good blog post idea but tried to force it into book length production. The second reason for disliking this book is his social leftism plugs and anti-religion remarks which are constant and distracting.
Numerous reviewers have already highlighted his lack of content and focus, so I'll focus on the distracting leftist elements. First, there are numerous references to Trump and Xenophobia, building walls and xenophobia, populism and you guess it, xenophobia. When talking about the Nazi party, he also says there are parallels to our government today (he wrote this while Trump was in office). This bias makes some of the legitimate economic critiques of Trump (like pointing out the downside to tariffs) harder to swallow because there is a clear bias against him.
He also takes numerous jabs at religion, some of it more veiled like: "beliefs are hard to change, even when the facts are on your side. Entire populations make up stories that guide their actions, without realizing that much of it is a figment of their imaginations." There are constant anti-religion digs throughout the book where almost every negative example he provides is from religion and he often pits that against "science" as if they were mutually exclusive.
He also talks about how bad fossil fuels are (climate change doomer) and how solar is our best hope. He predicts that within the next 5-30 years machines will be smarter that humans in a generalized way and we may not be top of the food chain anymore. This flows from his evolutionary worldview where a sovereign God is not in charge and upholding all things by the word of his power (Heb 1:3) but instead everything is the way it is by chance. This is not a fear of mine because of God is sovereign (even if you don't believe that, he still is) and he created humans were created to have dominion over the earth (Gen. 1:26). I therefore don't have fears of aliens, animals, AI, or chance, changing that while God sits on the throne.
I will give him props on his conclusion though which is solid. He recommends embracing technology deflation, allowing it to re-order our world instead of using centralized power to delay the inevitable. He also states in his conclusion that it is necessary to switch to a hard-money system like Bitcoin (ending the fiat standard). But ultimately, this book is skippable because the author has an unchecked bias, little unique contributions, and a lack of focus.
April 23, 2023
Short and interesting read to gain a broad understanding of the fundamental cracks our current inflation driven economic framework and the (rather scary) technology revolution thats already here
April 10, 2023
Jeff Booth is a tech entrepreneur from Canada. With his co-founder he built a sales platform for home improvement products, BuildDirect. That makes him well-placed to comment on tech and he makes some really interesting points about business models and the artificial intelligence that powers them. Based on what’s happening in the present Jeff looks ahead to what might be coming down the tracks economically, socially and technologically, and he is worried it might not be good.
This is an engaging book with a broad scope that touches on many of the themes that fascinate me personally and brings them together in a well-paced and very readable package. The journey Jeff takes us on starts with economics and ends with a call to rewrite the rules for a radically different world. In between we look at capitalism and the monetary system, human nature and game theory, energy and AI.
The two big themes woven through the book are the impact of AI on the role of people in the economy and the deflationary effect of technology.
Jeff is rightly concerned about the potential impact AI could have on employment and what that means for society. I first came across this idea from Martin Ford’s The Lights in the Tunnel (2009) which explains that technology will ultimately destroy capitalism as we know it. Martin’s idea works like this: as jobs are automated away, wages drop and people spend less, focusing on necessities. This means that businesses won’t have as many buyers for their products, so turnover drops and they lay people off. The unemployed workers can’t find new jobs and the vicious circle intensifies as demand drops further and further. For this to come about, we don’t need to see the whole economy automated. Any substantial drop in employment will prime the cycle, sparking a flight from discretionary purchases.
You might think that is a bit far-fetched, but it is happening already, which brings us to Jeff’s insights on tech business models. The key point is that successful tech platforms aggregate supply in their target markets, creating competition between suppliers for customers’ attention. It’s great for the platform because it creates a monopoly that is constantly being improved by better and better AI. In Jeff’s words:
Jeff does not go on to spell out the economic consequences of the platform business model which is disappointing because it fits so well with his arguments on job automation. Let’s pick book retailing (it’s the same across retail). If you go back to the high street of 50 years ago book shops were individually owned and the profit from the sales went to a large number of small business people who earned comfortable livings. Nowadays, most people get their books from a certain internet retailer and the profits are aggregated in the hands of a founder and a group of investment companies. That is great if you own stock in the platform but, for the old school booksellers, unemployment beckons. This is precisely the mechanism Martin Ford was talking about in 2009. Leaner times for the many whilst AI makes a few fortunate individuals very wealthy.
The second main theme is the deflationary effect of technology on the economy. The idea is that internet businesses are more efficient than physical stores which gives consumers better value. Keen prices are achieved by the competition between suppliers on the platform. Jeff mentions the deflationary effects of technology in many places in his book and, although he doesn’t expressly set out what he means, my inference is that he is thinking of the competitive supplier environment on the tech platforms.
This is one point where I diverge from Jeff’s thinking. I can see that some parts of the economy are deflating – low prices on platforms being one of them – but in other places prices are going up. I would have appreciated more analysis here.
There is no doubt that consumer goods, toys and clothing are remarkably cheap, whether on the internet or in store. Whilst there may be some deflationary effect from the tech platforms, mostly the cost reductions in these categories come from globalisation. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail, and to a tech CEO every benefit looks like an algorithm.
The real cause of goods deflation in the rich world is poor people in the developing world. Jeff points out that, for Chinese workers to enjoy the standard of living American workers have, they would need their pay more than doubled, and for American goods to become competitive against Chinese goods, American workers would need to accept the 72 hour weeks the Chinese are working for $1,400 per month.
In all other areas of life things are getting more expensive. There are two main drivers of this, excessive money creation and energy scarcity.
Jeff is worried (as am I) about the effects of money creation on asset prices and ultimately people’s lives. Jeff acknowledges that the presses can’t keep printing forever but also recognises that central banks are drawn to it as an easier option than the alternatives (austerity, debt restructuring or societal restructuring).
On balance he sees monetary inflation as a net positive on the basis that it has lifted the world out of poverty. I don’t see that at all. To the extent that wages are rising in low-income countries, the cause is mostly due to three decades of globalisation and the transfer of industrial jobs to the developing world.
In a section on creative destruction, Jeff mentions that luck and timing play a big part in a successful tech startup. A version of this has happened to Jeff’s book because, since he published it in 2021, we have had a series of shocks and central banks have chosen to raise interest rates. For now, it seems, central bankers realise that printing won’t solve the problem. We are seeing living standards tumble, banks failing and public services crumbling for lack of funds. So far as I can see at present, we are in a phase of undeclared restructuring.
The second inflationary factor is food and energy. These are really the same thing, one powers our bodies and the other powers our machines. Jeff gets straight to the point that the economy is really an energy system, one of the many realities that neoclassical economics has yet to grasp.
He is a fan of solar power and believes that it offers the promise of limitless virtually free energy. So why have I got this down as an inflationary factor? Because of the stuff Jeff leaves out. Energy utopia is a very long way off and is subject to the physical constraints of living on a finite planet. I agree with Jeff that we need to transition to renewables but I am nothing like as optimistic on the scale or timing.
First, energy use is not uniform across the planet. At present north America has huge energy use per person, others much less. It seems reasonable to assume that over time lower income countries will strive for better conditions and that means more demand for energy which puts the price up.
Second, solar works best only in places where the sun shines. North Africa, southern Europe and south-west USA are particularly suitable. Wherever sited there are limits to the amount of energy that can be captured (the Shockley-Queisser Limit and its variants). The highest percentage for solar capture is 68% and that assumes technology that does not exist. It is highly unlikely that solar can completely replace fossil fuels – we will need to get by on less energy.
Third, the transition will be painful and cannot be dismissed lightly. My favourite energy economics expert, Tim Morgan, calculates that the aggregate energy availability per capita will be 20% lower in 2040 than in 2021. This assumes fossil fuels decline by 18% in that period whilst wind and solar increase by 90% and nuclear by 21%.
Fourth, another reminder that we live on a finite planet. It is by no means clear that there are enough materials on earth to build the vast arrays of solar (or wind) that are needed to replace the current energy infrastructure. It’s not just materials: the building of a vast renewable energy infrastructure will itself need energy on a vast scale. Where will that come from? The answer of course is oil, gas and coal, the prices of which will skyrocket.
Ultimately The Price of Tomorrow is a call to action. Jeff identifies an important problem and, like the rest of us, does not have the answers. In the wake of the debt bubble bursting do we reform capitalism or junk it? Will inflation continue its destructive course or can we harness deflation to defeat it? Will AI destroy human society or help to regulate it? Should we accept the rule of the billionaires or turn to more egalitarian ways? Jeff asks the questions and calls for a big conversation: “That’s why I’m asking you,” he explains.
This is precisely the conversation we need to be having – well done Jeff Booth for getting it started.
This is an engaging book with a broad scope that touches on many of the themes that fascinate me personally and brings them together in a well-paced and very readable package. The journey Jeff takes us on starts with economics and ends with a call to rewrite the rules for a radically different world. In between we look at capitalism and the monetary system, human nature and game theory, energy and AI.
The two big themes woven through the book are the impact of AI on the role of people in the economy and the deflationary effect of technology.
Jeff is rightly concerned about the potential impact AI could have on employment and what that means for society. I first came across this idea from Martin Ford’s The Lights in the Tunnel (2009) which explains that technology will ultimately destroy capitalism as we know it. Martin’s idea works like this: as jobs are automated away, wages drop and people spend less, focusing on necessities. This means that businesses won’t have as many buyers for their products, so turnover drops and they lay people off. The unemployed workers can’t find new jobs and the vicious circle intensifies as demand drops further and further. For this to come about, we don’t need to see the whole economy automated. Any substantial drop in employment will prime the cycle, sparking a flight from discretionary purchases.
You might think that is a bit far-fetched, but it is happening already, which brings us to Jeff’s insights on tech business models. The key point is that successful tech platforms aggregate supply in their target markets, creating competition between suppliers for customers’ attention. It’s great for the platform because it creates a monopoly that is constantly being improved by better and better AI. In Jeff’s words:
"Designing a platform to take advantage of strong network effects creates lock-in and winner-take-all markets…. Ironically, network effects, which were supposed to make the internet the great equalizer as it redistributed power away from monopolies, have ended up concentrating even more power in the hands of very few."
Jeff does not go on to spell out the economic consequences of the platform business model which is disappointing because it fits so well with his arguments on job automation. Let’s pick book retailing (it’s the same across retail). If you go back to the high street of 50 years ago book shops were individually owned and the profit from the sales went to a large number of small business people who earned comfortable livings. Nowadays, most people get their books from a certain internet retailer and the profits are aggregated in the hands of a founder and a group of investment companies. That is great if you own stock in the platform but, for the old school booksellers, unemployment beckons. This is precisely the mechanism Martin Ford was talking about in 2009. Leaner times for the many whilst AI makes a few fortunate individuals very wealthy.
The second main theme is the deflationary effect of technology on the economy. The idea is that internet businesses are more efficient than physical stores which gives consumers better value. Keen prices are achieved by the competition between suppliers on the platform. Jeff mentions the deflationary effects of technology in many places in his book and, although he doesn’t expressly set out what he means, my inference is that he is thinking of the competitive supplier environment on the tech platforms.
This is one point where I diverge from Jeff’s thinking. I can see that some parts of the economy are deflating – low prices on platforms being one of them – but in other places prices are going up. I would have appreciated more analysis here.
There is no doubt that consumer goods, toys and clothing are remarkably cheap, whether on the internet or in store. Whilst there may be some deflationary effect from the tech platforms, mostly the cost reductions in these categories come from globalisation. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail, and to a tech CEO every benefit looks like an algorithm.
The real cause of goods deflation in the rich world is poor people in the developing world. Jeff points out that, for Chinese workers to enjoy the standard of living American workers have, they would need their pay more than doubled, and for American goods to become competitive against Chinese goods, American workers would need to accept the 72 hour weeks the Chinese are working for $1,400 per month.
In all other areas of life things are getting more expensive. There are two main drivers of this, excessive money creation and energy scarcity.
Jeff is worried (as am I) about the effects of money creation on asset prices and ultimately people’s lives. Jeff acknowledges that the presses can’t keep printing forever but also recognises that central banks are drawn to it as an easier option than the alternatives (austerity, debt restructuring or societal restructuring).
On balance he sees monetary inflation as a net positive on the basis that it has lifted the world out of poverty. I don’t see that at all. To the extent that wages are rising in low-income countries, the cause is mostly due to three decades of globalisation and the transfer of industrial jobs to the developing world.
In a section on creative destruction, Jeff mentions that luck and timing play a big part in a successful tech startup. A version of this has happened to Jeff’s book because, since he published it in 2021, we have had a series of shocks and central banks have chosen to raise interest rates. For now, it seems, central bankers realise that printing won’t solve the problem. We are seeing living standards tumble, banks failing and public services crumbling for lack of funds. So far as I can see at present, we are in a phase of undeclared restructuring.
The second inflationary factor is food and energy. These are really the same thing, one powers our bodies and the other powers our machines. Jeff gets straight to the point that the economy is really an energy system, one of the many realities that neoclassical economics has yet to grasp.
He is a fan of solar power and believes that it offers the promise of limitless virtually free energy. So why have I got this down as an inflationary factor? Because of the stuff Jeff leaves out. Energy utopia is a very long way off and is subject to the physical constraints of living on a finite planet. I agree with Jeff that we need to transition to renewables but I am nothing like as optimistic on the scale or timing.
First, energy use is not uniform across the planet. At present north America has huge energy use per person, others much less. It seems reasonable to assume that over time lower income countries will strive for better conditions and that means more demand for energy which puts the price up.
Second, solar works best only in places where the sun shines. North Africa, southern Europe and south-west USA are particularly suitable. Wherever sited there are limits to the amount of energy that can be captured (the Shockley-Queisser Limit and its variants). The highest percentage for solar capture is 68% and that assumes technology that does not exist. It is highly unlikely that solar can completely replace fossil fuels – we will need to get by on less energy.
Third, the transition will be painful and cannot be dismissed lightly. My favourite energy economics expert, Tim Morgan, calculates that the aggregate energy availability per capita will be 20% lower in 2040 than in 2021. This assumes fossil fuels decline by 18% in that period whilst wind and solar increase by 90% and nuclear by 21%.
Fourth, another reminder that we live on a finite planet. It is by no means clear that there are enough materials on earth to build the vast arrays of solar (or wind) that are needed to replace the current energy infrastructure. It’s not just materials: the building of a vast renewable energy infrastructure will itself need energy on a vast scale. Where will that come from? The answer of course is oil, gas and coal, the prices of which will skyrocket.
Ultimately The Price of Tomorrow is a call to action. Jeff identifies an important problem and, like the rest of us, does not have the answers. In the wake of the debt bubble bursting do we reform capitalism or junk it? Will inflation continue its destructive course or can we harness deflation to defeat it? Will AI destroy human society or help to regulate it? Should we accept the rule of the billionaires or turn to more egalitarian ways? Jeff asks the questions and calls for a big conversation: “That’s why I’m asking you,” he explains.
This is precisely the conversation we need to be having – well done Jeff Booth for getting it started.
November 29, 2020
This book was a very intriguing read, full of novel and interesting ideas. The underlying motive that technology is in its nature deflationary is somewhat mindboggling, though, after following the author's arguments, it makes perfect sense. The author argues that as technological progress further advances, it will be more and more difficult "to fight" these deflationary forces and not even ever more increasing debt (credit) will help. On the contrary, the author warns that in case nothing is changed we may witness an increase in wealth gap, social unrest, further rise of populism and maybe even wars and revolutions (forceful changes of the world order). The solution to this, which the author proposes, is simply letting the deflation happen. Furthermore, he argues, it is the key to an abundant future (as the subtitle suggests).
It occurred to me, when comming accross this argument, what if the possibly exponential technological growth and the underlying deflationary forces are so inextricably connected with the current inflationary politics that it simply would not have the same effects under the opposite (deflationary) policy. In other words: (1) would the technological progress still advance in the same pace even if the incentives for investors would have not been as attractive as they are under the current system, and (2) would the deflationary pressure on the prices be the same? I believe that the technological progress would likely slow down (which is not bad per se), as well as the deflationary pressures would ease. This would suggest that the intesity of deflationary pressures that technology brings largely depends on the pace of technological growth (which is artificially fed under inflationary politics).
The author further includes many observations and insights into variety of other fields such as artificial intelligence, sustainable energy, game theory and social anthropology. I always appreciate any efforts in making interdisciplinary observations.
However, as the author makes a point that in the (near) future artificial intelligence may very well replace humans in every way possible and by that effectively eliminate many (possibly all) jobs, it is not clear what would be the source of income for such individuals whose jobs ceased to exist (while at the same time no new jobs would emerge). Although, as the author points out, basically everything would become cheaper in time due to the deflationary forces of technology, people would still have to have at least some income to be able to saturate their needs. The author expresses his reservations against universal basic income but does not offer any alternative as to how people whose jobs were taken over by machines (so potentially every job there is), would get money. As long as we live in the world where everything is not free, we would have to think of some mechanism how to tackle this issue. Leaving out a proposal for such an alternative mechanism from the conclusions made in the book is, in my opinion, its biggest shortcoming. Nonetheless, it is definitely worth your attention.
It occurred to me, when comming accross this argument, what if the possibly exponential technological growth and the underlying deflationary forces are so inextricably connected with the current inflationary politics that it simply would not have the same effects under the opposite (deflationary) policy. In other words: (1) would the technological progress still advance in the same pace even if the incentives for investors would have not been as attractive as they are under the current system, and (2) would the deflationary pressure on the prices be the same? I believe that the technological progress would likely slow down (which is not bad per se), as well as the deflationary pressures would ease. This would suggest that the intesity of deflationary pressures that technology brings largely depends on the pace of technological growth (which is artificially fed under inflationary politics).
The author further includes many observations and insights into variety of other fields such as artificial intelligence, sustainable energy, game theory and social anthropology. I always appreciate any efforts in making interdisciplinary observations.
However, as the author makes a point that in the (near) future artificial intelligence may very well replace humans in every way possible and by that effectively eliminate many (possibly all) jobs, it is not clear what would be the source of income for such individuals whose jobs ceased to exist (while at the same time no new jobs would emerge). Although, as the author points out, basically everything would become cheaper in time due to the deflationary forces of technology, people would still have to have at least some income to be able to saturate their needs. The author expresses his reservations against universal basic income but does not offer any alternative as to how people whose jobs were taken over by machines (so potentially every job there is), would get money. As long as we live in the world where everything is not free, we would have to think of some mechanism how to tackle this issue. Leaving out a proposal for such an alternative mechanism from the conclusions made in the book is, in my opinion, its biggest shortcoming. Nonetheless, it is definitely worth your attention.
January 23, 2021
I did zero research on this title before buying it. I was actually listening to a book on Bitcoin when I saw a suggestion for it pop up, so I figured it had to be related to cryptocurrencies or something similar. With that thought, I added it to my reading list and resolved to come back to it after I finished my aforementioned crypto book.
When I later searched for this one on Amazon, I was surprised to see “Homo Deus” (a dark book about the future) right below it in the search results. I didn’t think the two were related at all. Though confused, I ignored my surprise, bought this one, and started it without digging any further into my initial uneasiness.
As I plowed through the first few chapters, I found that I was fairly hooked. They talked a lot about economics and financial policy, suggesting that such subjects were what the whole book would be about. Even without having done any research on this one prior to purchasing it, those sorts of things were exactly what I was hoping to find here.
After the first third (or so) of the book, however, things took a strange turn. One minute Booth was talking about credit markets, and the next, he was going on about artificial intelligence, the singularity, and doomsday-esque scenarios. Not only did I not think these two parts connected very well, but I also had no interest in reading about the subjects of the second one. They caught me off guard and brought the vibe down quite a bit.
The book continued with this “scary tech future” concept until the last few pages. There, it strangely tried to tie back to one of the concepts from the beginning of the book — letting deflationary technologies play out naturally, in the markets and our lives in general, rather than fighting them. I didn’t think it was a terrible conclusion; I just thought it wasn’t supported well enough by the chapters that preceded it.
I did enjoy Booth’s final suggestion that our lives are defined by the positive impact we have on others. That was a fairly nice touch and a good takeaway after a somewhat depressing and confusing book. But it was still too little too late and fairly unrelated to the rest of the book. So, while there are certainly some good moments in this one, overall, I’d say that its jumpiness and lack of cohesiveness make it worth passing on.
-Brian Sachetta
Author of “Get Out of Your Head”
When I later searched for this one on Amazon, I was surprised to see “Homo Deus” (a dark book about the future) right below it in the search results. I didn’t think the two were related at all. Though confused, I ignored my surprise, bought this one, and started it without digging any further into my initial uneasiness.
As I plowed through the first few chapters, I found that I was fairly hooked. They talked a lot about economics and financial policy, suggesting that such subjects were what the whole book would be about. Even without having done any research on this one prior to purchasing it, those sorts of things were exactly what I was hoping to find here.
After the first third (or so) of the book, however, things took a strange turn. One minute Booth was talking about credit markets, and the next, he was going on about artificial intelligence, the singularity, and doomsday-esque scenarios. Not only did I not think these two parts connected very well, but I also had no interest in reading about the subjects of the second one. They caught me off guard and brought the vibe down quite a bit.
The book continued with this “scary tech future” concept until the last few pages. There, it strangely tried to tie back to one of the concepts from the beginning of the book — letting deflationary technologies play out naturally, in the markets and our lives in general, rather than fighting them. I didn’t think it was a terrible conclusion; I just thought it wasn’t supported well enough by the chapters that preceded it.
I did enjoy Booth’s final suggestion that our lives are defined by the positive impact we have on others. That was a fairly nice touch and a good takeaway after a somewhat depressing and confusing book. But it was still too little too late and fairly unrelated to the rest of the book. So, while there are certainly some good moments in this one, overall, I’d say that its jumpiness and lack of cohesiveness make it worth passing on.
-Brian Sachetta
Author of “Get Out of Your Head”
January 15, 2022
This book serves to present an argument that is contradictory to the mainstream economic teaching that inflation and asset price increases are not only good, but also necessary and unavoidable. The author, who possesses the background as the CEO of a tech start up, and serves as a mentor on the board of many other similar companies, presents the idea that deflation is actually the path the world economy is on. It is interesting to note that this book was published right before the Coronavirus pandemic, a pandemic that has resulted in the most inflationary time period for many people alive today (more on this later).
The author’s premise is that increases in technology drives down the price of goods by removing inefficiencies. This is obvious when looking at our phones. Instead of needing a camera, a library, a mp3 player, an alarm clock, a hard drive, and numerous other devices we can get bye by relying on one technology in the palm of our hands. This tech significantly increases the utility in our lives at a fraction of the cost if we were to possess a number of the devices previously mentioned. The author goes on to argue that other fast adapting tech; such as self-driving cars, increase in solar efficiency, artificial intelligence (ex. creepy videos of Boston Dynamics Robotic Company), will further decrease the price of goods at an increasing rate.
Should we not celebrate this rise in efficiency and the decrease in the price of goods? Well, if you’re on the side of the consumer, then yes. You will be able to enjoy a similar or greater quality of life at a much reduced price. So what is the catch? These inefficiencies that technology will replace in the future are the jobs that we work today. This is pretty obvious when walking into a grocery or department store. People flock to self-checkouts and as a result not as many employees are needed. That is just an example of something right in front of you that is hard to miss. Let’s look at Amazon for a different example: it is almost impossible to argue that Amazon has not been great for consumers. There is basically an endless amount of goods one can purchase and it can all be delivered in a few days, or sooner. What is hard to see is the numerous retail and book stores that close as a result of this technology. That creates unemployment for the thousands of service workers who would normally make up those rolls. Amazon is clearly a huge employer in the economy but employees much fewer people than it has displaced.
So far increases in technology have mainly displaced service workers, which has led a higher percentage of people to pursue college degrees in the hope of landing a high-skilled job. The large increase in demand for further education, along with government backed loans, has created a large increases in student debt. What happens if the increase in artificial intelligence displaces these jobs as well? The author gives many examples of where he thinks this will happen in the economy because of the expansion of artificial intelligence. This will continue to help the consumer by lowering the prices of goods by removing input costs, but it will likely result in the loss of an ever increasing number of jobs in the economy.
The most obvious argument against the reasoning in the book it the author's expectation for drastic improvement in tech. The world is no short of would be oracles who have predicted tech to take over in the coming decades, only to be proven extremely early, whether it be the Unabomber: a vigilantly who mailed explosives to Tech CEO’s in the 80’s, or the 1960’s animated show The Jetson’s that showed the daily lives of a family in the far off future (George Jetson’s birthday is 08/22/2022). The author’s thesis is that tech is increasing and it follows a system of compound growth, “slowly at first, and then all at once”.
If technology should be pushing prices down why are we seeing a rise in inflation? Well there are two reasons: 1) Money printing and 2) Government induced inefficiencies. During the pandemic the Fed underwent stimulus in a few different ways: PPP (Payment Protection Program) stimulus directly to business, stimulus directly to citizens (Trump checks, Biden dollars), and treasury security purchases. These types of stimulus all have different means of disbursement and different strategies but they serve a similar end result: more money in the system. Between February 2020 – February 2021 M2 Money Supply jumped 26%, meaning that a quarter of all US dollars ever produced where produced in a single year. When there is more cash in the economy but the economy is producing the same amount of goods (or less goods in the case of 2020-2021) prices have to rise.
If you have been paying a little attention to the news over the past year and a half, something should be off to you. We continue to hear about struggles in the supply chain (just a fancy word for shortages), whether this be a temporary run on toilet paper or a longer lasting shortage in automotive parts, building materials, and semiconductor chips. Worker shortages and job openings is also a recurring theme this year. So, you might wonder, why is the stock market and housing prices seeing all-time highs in a struggling economy? The simple answer is that if the amount of new money in the system is increasing faster than the increase in production of assets we get something called asset price inflation. The underlying companies of these stocks are not performing better but instead their stock price is increasing because of fiscal stimulus. After people’s basic needs are met all of the extra liquidity in the economy has to go somewhere: this could be stocks, real estate investments, land, etc. The increase in liquidity is great for assets holders: people’s equity in their homes is seeing growth, 401K are at all-time highs, and real estate investors cannot miss. The problem? When assets increase in price quickly we get inequality because holders of those assets see their net worth increase while those who are just getting started are priced out of the game. People who have been saving up for a down payment for their first home have seen housing prices increase by 19% over the past 12 months (Case-Shiller US National Home Price).
This government stimulus props up assets and keeps the system going, but it is only a temporary fix because inflation will force the Federal Reserve to make adjustments. The author’s argument is that once the insane levels of stimulus and debt in the system normalizes it is only natural for the growth in asset prices to discontinue with the abundance that technology may soon present. The author gives a short explanation in the final chapter as to what he believes the deflationionary system will be built upon: Bitcoin. The author believes that a monetary system, based upon a fixed asset, outside of government intervention, is a solution to take humanity the next step.
I gave this book 4 stars due to the fact that the meat of the novel focuses on explaining the problems in the current economy, but only dedicates a couple chapters to how the economy will look once in a deflationary system. Perhaps this is not exactly fair because predicting the future is much harder than seeing the flaws in the present. This is why I want to bring up a quote from Jeff Bezos that was featured in this book:
“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next ten years?’ And that is a very interest question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ And I submit to you that the second question is actually the more important of the two-because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.”
It is impossible to guess how the world may look if it implements some of the suggestions mentioned in The Price of Tomorrow, but it is not too hard to reason what will happen if we stay on the current path.
The author’s premise is that increases in technology drives down the price of goods by removing inefficiencies. This is obvious when looking at our phones. Instead of needing a camera, a library, a mp3 player, an alarm clock, a hard drive, and numerous other devices we can get bye by relying on one technology in the palm of our hands. This tech significantly increases the utility in our lives at a fraction of the cost if we were to possess a number of the devices previously mentioned. The author goes on to argue that other fast adapting tech; such as self-driving cars, increase in solar efficiency, artificial intelligence (ex. creepy videos of Boston Dynamics Robotic Company), will further decrease the price of goods at an increasing rate.
Should we not celebrate this rise in efficiency and the decrease in the price of goods? Well, if you’re on the side of the consumer, then yes. You will be able to enjoy a similar or greater quality of life at a much reduced price. So what is the catch? These inefficiencies that technology will replace in the future are the jobs that we work today. This is pretty obvious when walking into a grocery or department store. People flock to self-checkouts and as a result not as many employees are needed. That is just an example of something right in front of you that is hard to miss. Let’s look at Amazon for a different example: it is almost impossible to argue that Amazon has not been great for consumers. There is basically an endless amount of goods one can purchase and it can all be delivered in a few days, or sooner. What is hard to see is the numerous retail and book stores that close as a result of this technology. That creates unemployment for the thousands of service workers who would normally make up those rolls. Amazon is clearly a huge employer in the economy but employees much fewer people than it has displaced.
So far increases in technology have mainly displaced service workers, which has led a higher percentage of people to pursue college degrees in the hope of landing a high-skilled job. The large increase in demand for further education, along with government backed loans, has created a large increases in student debt. What happens if the increase in artificial intelligence displaces these jobs as well? The author gives many examples of where he thinks this will happen in the economy because of the expansion of artificial intelligence. This will continue to help the consumer by lowering the prices of goods by removing input costs, but it will likely result in the loss of an ever increasing number of jobs in the economy.
The most obvious argument against the reasoning in the book it the author's expectation for drastic improvement in tech. The world is no short of would be oracles who have predicted tech to take over in the coming decades, only to be proven extremely early, whether it be the Unabomber: a vigilantly who mailed explosives to Tech CEO’s in the 80’s, or the 1960’s animated show The Jetson’s that showed the daily lives of a family in the far off future (George Jetson’s birthday is 08/22/2022). The author’s thesis is that tech is increasing and it follows a system of compound growth, “slowly at first, and then all at once”.
If technology should be pushing prices down why are we seeing a rise in inflation? Well there are two reasons: 1) Money printing and 2) Government induced inefficiencies. During the pandemic the Fed underwent stimulus in a few different ways: PPP (Payment Protection Program) stimulus directly to business, stimulus directly to citizens (Trump checks, Biden dollars), and treasury security purchases. These types of stimulus all have different means of disbursement and different strategies but they serve a similar end result: more money in the system. Between February 2020 – February 2021 M2 Money Supply jumped 26%, meaning that a quarter of all US dollars ever produced where produced in a single year. When there is more cash in the economy but the economy is producing the same amount of goods (or less goods in the case of 2020-2021) prices have to rise.
If you have been paying a little attention to the news over the past year and a half, something should be off to you. We continue to hear about struggles in the supply chain (just a fancy word for shortages), whether this be a temporary run on toilet paper or a longer lasting shortage in automotive parts, building materials, and semiconductor chips. Worker shortages and job openings is also a recurring theme this year. So, you might wonder, why is the stock market and housing prices seeing all-time highs in a struggling economy? The simple answer is that if the amount of new money in the system is increasing faster than the increase in production of assets we get something called asset price inflation. The underlying companies of these stocks are not performing better but instead their stock price is increasing because of fiscal stimulus. After people’s basic needs are met all of the extra liquidity in the economy has to go somewhere: this could be stocks, real estate investments, land, etc. The increase in liquidity is great for assets holders: people’s equity in their homes is seeing growth, 401K are at all-time highs, and real estate investors cannot miss. The problem? When assets increase in price quickly we get inequality because holders of those assets see their net worth increase while those who are just getting started are priced out of the game. People who have been saving up for a down payment for their first home have seen housing prices increase by 19% over the past 12 months (Case-Shiller US National Home Price).
This government stimulus props up assets and keeps the system going, but it is only a temporary fix because inflation will force the Federal Reserve to make adjustments. The author’s argument is that once the insane levels of stimulus and debt in the system normalizes it is only natural for the growth in asset prices to discontinue with the abundance that technology may soon present. The author gives a short explanation in the final chapter as to what he believes the deflationionary system will be built upon: Bitcoin. The author believes that a monetary system, based upon a fixed asset, outside of government intervention, is a solution to take humanity the next step.
I gave this book 4 stars due to the fact that the meat of the novel focuses on explaining the problems in the current economy, but only dedicates a couple chapters to how the economy will look once in a deflationary system. Perhaps this is not exactly fair because predicting the future is much harder than seeing the flaws in the present. This is why I want to bring up a quote from Jeff Bezos that was featured in this book:
“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next ten years?’ And that is a very interest question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ And I submit to you that the second question is actually the more important of the two-because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.”
It is impossible to guess how the world may look if it implements some of the suggestions mentioned in The Price of Tomorrow, but it is not too hard to reason what will happen if we stay on the current path.
Read
April 26, 2020Loved the book. Covers a lot but at its core is that the the “mirage of growth today is nothing more than a debt-fueled spending binge.”
Couldn’t agree more that this rising debt is unsustainable, AND that technological change will continue to drive and accelerate deflation.
As humans we have trouble fully understand “exponential growth.”
Good examples on the single grain of rice doubled every time on a chessboard. 1 grain, 2 grains, 4, 8…. Turns into = 1.8*10^19 grains by the end of the chessboard. Or that a single piece of paper folded in half 50 times would reach the sun.
Low-price, abundant energy is critical component of any nations competitiveness since it’s used in every energy. What happens when the cost of energy is effectively driven to ‘nearly free,’ possible if correctly harnessing renewables?
Free Energy changes everything - just think about the impacts of desalination for clean water and carbon collection for cleaner air? Energy production is ~10% of any economy. What sort of deflation does it cause when these jobs are gone?
Zooming out. History: 300K yrs ago Homo sapiens emerged, 3K yrs ago the alphabet was invented, 600 years ago the printing press, first “computer” thought up 170 years ago, first thoughts about AI developed 70 years ago, 23 years ago first AI to beat chess grandmaster, 8 years ago first AI to beat Jeopardy, 3 years ago to win at Go… The rate of change will continue to accelerate. AGI incoming.
Central Banks & Governments have pumped in debt to offset deflationary powers of tech advancements, citing Ray Dalio’s 4 government levers that we can pull to escape the current debt burden.It’s not looking that good.
Are we the frog in the pot of water that is getting ready to boil? Karl Popper: “True ignorance is not the absence of knowledge, it’s the refusal to acquire it.”
The author pieces together quite nicely a number of big topics and nicely weaves human psychology & game theory into his theories about these important topics. Very important topics and thought provoking for sure.
Couldn’t agree more that this rising debt is unsustainable, AND that technological change will continue to drive and accelerate deflation.
As humans we have trouble fully understand “exponential growth.”
Good examples on the single grain of rice doubled every time on a chessboard. 1 grain, 2 grains, 4, 8…. Turns into = 1.8*10^19 grains by the end of the chessboard. Or that a single piece of paper folded in half 50 times would reach the sun.
Low-price, abundant energy is critical component of any nations competitiveness since it’s used in every energy. What happens when the cost of energy is effectively driven to ‘nearly free,’ possible if correctly harnessing renewables?
Free Energy changes everything - just think about the impacts of desalination for clean water and carbon collection for cleaner air? Energy production is ~10% of any economy. What sort of deflation does it cause when these jobs are gone?
Zooming out. History: 300K yrs ago Homo sapiens emerged, 3K yrs ago the alphabet was invented, 600 years ago the printing press, first “computer” thought up 170 years ago, first thoughts about AI developed 70 years ago, 23 years ago first AI to beat chess grandmaster, 8 years ago first AI to beat Jeopardy, 3 years ago to win at Go… The rate of change will continue to accelerate. AGI incoming.
Central Banks & Governments have pumped in debt to offset deflationary powers of tech advancements, citing Ray Dalio’s 4 government levers that we can pull to escape the current debt burden.It’s not looking that good.
Are we the frog in the pot of water that is getting ready to boil? Karl Popper: “True ignorance is not the absence of knowledge, it’s the refusal to acquire it.”
The author pieces together quite nicely a number of big topics and nicely weaves human psychology & game theory into his theories about these important topics. Very important topics and thought provoking for sure.
September 1, 2021
The author does a great job tieing in big ideas and leaves you asking the question what is the answer to solving the biggest economic crash we will soon have to face down the line with the next generations. One thing the book lacks is going into depth on certain topics and only scratches the surface on some areas more than others. It somewhat makes since but if a whole chapter is dedicated to the future of AGI and Energy. I would have appreciated another full chapter dedicated to 3D printing. For that reason I give it a 4/5 stars. I strongly agree with everything Jeff says in this book. An updated version of this book should be released in a couple of years. He references back to 2008 and the housing market collapse and how the bailouts and money printing reward the chrony capitalist and instead only punished the normal people. Granted we would have been in a much worse recession. If you think $800B being pumped into the economy was bad. Wait until you realize 13 years later the U.S government pumped in more than triple of that in 2020- 2021. I think an updated version about the repercussions of those stimuluses should be talked about in the updated version rather than referencing readers to go to the website to keep the conversation going.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
March 25, 2021
As someone who's in the IT industry (java developer) I already read about most of these tech related topics, and I purchased this because I wanted to learn more about the deflation ideas which Jeff Booth talked about in some interviews. While the book does contain some new, interesting and well structured information, I feel that something is missing. And that something is a painting of a deflationary world and some concreteness about how we're going to get there from the current financial system. All I concluded as a personal solution to the massive inflation problem is to just buy Bitcoin.
October 14, 2022
Jeff Booth brings together several ideas that most of us are familiar with already (e.g., technology, inflation, monetary policy, AI, game theory and solar energy), giving a basic overview of each and finally gets to the point of his thesis about 90% into the book. This didn't leave a lot of time to convince the reader that deflation (fueled by all of the above concepts) would lead to his proposed utopia.
He concluded his argument stating, "But what do I know". Not a resounding vote of confidence in himself.
He concluded his argument stating, "But what do I know". Not a resounding vote of confidence in himself.
March 4, 2020
A highly engaging, mind-blowing and can't-put-it-down read!
This book is incredibly powerful and yet so easy to read. I couldn't put it down till I finished the last page - and then I read it again. It will leave you with a new 'lens' that will give you a fresh look/perspective on trends and events happening around us. Add this to your reading list now.
This book is incredibly powerful and yet so easy to read. I couldn't put it down till I finished the last page - and then I read it again. It will leave you with a new 'lens' that will give you a fresh look/perspective on trends and events happening around us. Add this to your reading list now.
January 15, 2022
I've heard this book mentioned on numerous podcasts, many in discussion with its author, and finally gave it a go. I think the topic is really important, as is the takeaway. For me, the takeaway is that we need to question ourselves on what to do about the unstoppable force of technological deflation against the immovable object of a debt-fueled economy. I think Jeff Booth is probably right about what's coming and, though simple, I think his solution of letting technology deflate our economies while re-imagining what it means to work and spend and embracing an incorruptible global currency (Bitcoin!) is a good one, but it's hard to see current governments going for that in any way. All the political incentive is in kicking the can down the road so that necessary pain (dealing with debt and wealth inequality) is pushed aside for short-term comfort (adding debt and using inflation to decrease the value of that debt down the line). It's a sticky problem and I can't say I'm excited to see how it plays out.
So, the main idea of this book and its implications are really important to think about. That said, the book sort of wanders off track during most of its middle, delving into bits on technology and energy and psychology that seem out of place or at least not worth the pages given. If you've read anything about AI, renewable energy or human psychology in the last ten years, you won't find a lot of value or clarity in these sections (but if not they could be interesting). I'd recommend reading chapters 1, 2 and 10 and you'll find yourself with a more cohesive and persuasive thesis.
So, the main idea of this book and its implications are really important to think about. That said, the book sort of wanders off track during most of its middle, delving into bits on technology and energy and psychology that seem out of place or at least not worth the pages given. If you've read anything about AI, renewable energy or human psychology in the last ten years, you won't find a lot of value or clarity in these sections (but if not they could be interesting). I'd recommend reading chapters 1, 2 and 10 and you'll find yourself with a more cohesive and persuasive thesis.
March 28, 2022
Two-and-a-half stars rounded up.
I didn't strain to read, and voice was clear throughout, just lacking in content. If the author's objective was to spark conversation, then they accomplished this by tabling a number of topics without coming to conclusions or building a defence of the title's thesis. A lot is left to the reader to explore if they are interested, though I found myself skipping many of the old historicims and surface-level analyses as non-substantive to the argument. Fluff and hand-waving with little conclusive impact--could have been a series of articles.
I didn't strain to read, and voice was clear throughout, just lacking in content. If the author's objective was to spark conversation, then they accomplished this by tabling a number of topics without coming to conclusions or building a defence of the title's thesis. A lot is left to the reader to explore if they are interested, though I found myself skipping many of the old historicims and surface-level analyses as non-substantive to the argument. Fluff and hand-waving with little conclusive impact--could have been a series of articles.
May 18, 2023
As technology advances, the true price of goods and services will continue to fall at an exponentially increasing rate, leaving the world as we currently know it in complete disarray, but with the hope of a new world, where resource abundance gives us the time to explore what life truly has to offer.
The Price of Tomorrow was a spine chilling read that leaves you in wonder of what our future has in store for us, as technology continues to make our lives cheaper, wipe out jobs, and expose the flaws in our current debt driven economic system. This is an important read for you to join in on the conversation of what's to come, if for no other reason than to answer the simple question.
What are you going to do with your life, once all of your basic needs are met?
The Price of Tomorrow was a spine chilling read that leaves you in wonder of what our future has in store for us, as technology continues to make our lives cheaper, wipe out jobs, and expose the flaws in our current debt driven economic system. This is an important read for you to join in on the conversation of what's to come, if for no other reason than to answer the simple question.
What are you going to do with your life, once all of your basic needs are met?
February 14, 2021
Very insightful read. Jeff's take on how accelerating technological advancements should lead to a deflationary environment where your purchasing power goes up and up and how this is in stark contrast to the fiat currency inflated economic system we live in is so true. Must read!
After reading this I watched some of his (Real Vision) interviews on YouTube - also highly recommended (e.g. COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation (w/ Raoul Pal & Jeff Booth)).
After reading this I watched some of his (Real Vision) interviews on YouTube - also highly recommended (e.g. COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation (w/ Raoul Pal & Jeff Booth)).
May 21, 2021
There were some interesting ideas brought up with this book, specifically the fact that technology being deflationary pricing.
I wish there would have been more evidence about this. Yes, I understand how things get cheaper over time due to technology and automation, but I didn’t quite grasp how it’s deflationary. Maybe it’s because of macroeconomic monetary policy. I dunno, I just wished it was something that made sense to me.
It seems like everything is doom & gloom, with no solution insight.
I wish there would have been more evidence about this. Yes, I understand how things get cheaper over time due to technology and automation, but I didn’t quite grasp how it’s deflationary. Maybe it’s because of macroeconomic monetary policy. I dunno, I just wished it was something that made sense to me.
It seems like everything is doom & gloom, with no solution insight.
November 27, 2021
Whirlwind overview of technological trends, psychology of humans, macroeconomics, recent financial history. With the conclusion that technology causes deflation which could be the answer to the loss of jobs to machines and other income inequities.
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