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The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with DestinyAmazon Videos

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The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny Kindle Edition

by William Strauss (Author), Neil Howe (Author) Format: Kindle Edition

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NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Discover the game-changing theory of the cycles of history and what past generations can teach us about living through times of upheaval—with deep insights into the roles that Boomers, Generation X, and Millennials have to play—now with a new preface by Neil Howe.

“One of the best efforts to give us an integrated vision of where we are going.”—The Wall Street Journal

First comes a High, a period of confident expansion. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion. Then comes an Unraveling, in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history.

William Strauss and Neil Howe will change the way you see the world—and your place in it. With blazing originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict what comes next.

Strauss and Howe base this vision on a provocative theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four twenty-year eras—or “turnings”—that comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Illustrating this cycle through a brilliant analysis of the post–World War II period, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for this rendezvous with destiny.

From the Publisher

“A Fourth Turning lends people…[an] opportunity to heal (or destroy)…the…heart of the republic.”

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

The Fourth Turning continues the project of mapping out the place of generations in history, a project begun in the authors' earlier books Generations and 13th Gen. If millennial fever takes hold, The Fourth Turning may be only the first of an impending wave of pseudo-scholarly tracts prognosticating future (but imminent!) doom as we collectively close the books on this millennium. Those expecting a serious or dry tome might be put off by the authors' taste for bulleted text and catchy phrasings, but can you blame these guys for wanting to make impending peril as exciting as possible? After all, they think we are headed toward "events on par with the Revolution, the Civil War, or World War II" in the next 20 years. Mixing solid understanding of present generational divisions, with some fairly broad generalizations, Strauss and Howe promise to move from history to prophecy. Fans of Future Shock, Megatrends, or Powershift will be familiar with the authors' style of writing and not at all put off by the book's reach or style. Their take on history provides an intriguing (if not always reliable) lens through which to view the past, present, and maybe even the future.

From Library Journal

After researching historical patterns, the authors (Generations: The History of America's Future, Morrow, 1991) conclude that America is on the verge of crisis. They substantiate their hypothesis by identifying and tracing a repetitive, four-stage historical cycle that, throughout recorded time, started on a high note and ended in hardship. Narrator Michael Tilford's polished, convincing voice and steady pacing lend an air of legitimacy to the authors' assertions. A brief question-and-answer session between the narrator and the authors at program's end provides an interactive quality that enhances the sometimes methodical drone of the historical analysis. Like other works of prophecy, The Fourth Turning should circulate well in public libraries.?Mark P. Tierney, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Copyright 1997 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Booklist

What is so attractive about deterministic, cyclical theories offered to explain troublingly complex realities? Strauss and Howe, who staked out "generational change" as their mantra in Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584^-2069 (1991) and then 13th-GEN: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail? (1993), return to argue that the U.S. can anticipate a major crisis--a fourth turning--in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Regrettably, some 40 percent of the book's 350 pages retrace seasons of time and life, the cycles of history, and the "Anglo-American Saeculum" : largely a rehash of ideas from their earlier books. They discuss the U.S.' most recent three turnings: the "High" of the decades after World War II; the 1964^-84 "Consciousness Revolution" ; and 1984-2005's "Culture Wars." To assess "fourth turnings," they describe examples (England's War of the Roses, Armada Crisis, and Glorious Revolution, and the American Revolution, Civil War, and Depression and World War II) and then predict the kinds of catalysts and crises that might push the U.S. into its next "fourth turning." Strauss and Howe offer suggestions on how we can prepare for these challenges, but few will learn much from their standard words of wisdom. Probably a harmless enough brand of New Age futurism from the GOP Beltway think tanks, but aggressive marketing suggests high visibility. Mary Carroll

Review

“I put down The Fourth Turning with a mixture of terror and excitement. . . . If Strauss and Howe are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets.”—David Kaiser, The Boston Globe

“One of the best efforts to give us an integrated vision of where we are going.”—The Wall Street Journal

“A startling vision of what the cycles of history predict for the future.”—USA Weekend

About the Author

William Strauss and Neil Howe, the authors of Generations: The History of America's Future and 13th-GEN, write and lecture frequently on generational issues. Strauss is the cofounder and director of the Capitol Steps, a political cabaret. Howe, an historian and economist, is a senior adviser for the Concord Coalition. They both live in the Washington, D.C., area.

From the Hardcover edition.

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

WINTER COMES AGAIN

America feels like it's unraveling.

Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have sunk into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within.

Neither an epic victory over Communism nor an extended upswing of the business cycle can buoy our civic spirit. The Cold War and New Deal struggles are plainly over, but we are of no mind to bask in their successes. The America of today feels worse, in its fundamentals, than the one many of us remember from youth, a society presided over by those of supposedly lesser consciousness. Wherever we look, from L.A. to D.C., from Oklahoma City to Sun City, we see paths to a foreboding future. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment.

Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked "Are you a very important person?" Today, more than six in ten say yes to that question. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled.

Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don't add up to an actualized society. Popular trust in virtually every American institution--from businesses and governments to churches and newspapers--keeps falling to new lows. Public debts soar, the middle class shrinks, welfare dependencies deepen, and cultural wars worsen by the year. We now have the highest incarceration rate, and the lowest eligible-voter participation rates, of any major democracy. Statistics inform us that many adverse trends (crime, divorce, abortion, scholastic aptitudes) may have bottomed out, but we're not reassured.

Optimism still attaches to self, but no longer to family or community. Most Americans express more hope for their own prospects than for their children's--or the nation's. Parents widely fear that the American Dream, which was there (solidly) for their parents and still there (barely) for them, will not be there for their kids. Young householders are reaching their mid-thirties never having known a time when America seemed to be on the right track. Middle-aged people look at their thin savings accounts and slim-to-none pensions, scoff at an illusory Social Security trust fund, and try not to dwell on what a burden their old age could become. Seniors separate into their own Leisure World, recoiling at the lost virtue of youth while trying not to think about the future.

We perceive our civic challenge as some vast, insoluble Rubik's Cube. Behind each problem lies another problem that must be solved first, and behind that lies yet another, and another, ad infinitum. To fix crime we have to fix the family, but before we do that we have to fix welfare, and that means fixing our budget, and that means fixing our civic spirit, but we can't do that without fixing moral standards, and that means fixing schools and churches, and that means fixing the inner cities, and that's impossible unless we fix crime. There's no fulcrum on which to rest a policy lever. People of all ages sense that something huge will have to sweep across America before the gloom can be lifted but that's an awareness we suppress. As a nation, we're in deep denial.

While we grope for answers, we wonder if analysis may be crowding out our intuition. Like the anxious patient who takes 17 kinds of medicine while poring over his own CAT scan, we find it hard to stop and ask: What is the underlying malady really about? How can we best bring the primal forces of nature to our assistance? Isn't there a choice lying somewhere between total control and total despair? Deep down, beneath the tangle of trend lines, we suspect that our history or biology or very humanity must have something simple and important to say to us. But we don't know what it is. If we once did know, we have since forgotten.

Wherever we're headed, America is evolving in ways most of us don't like or understand. Individually focused yet collectively adrift we wonder if we're heading toward a waterfall.

Are we?

From the Hardcover edition.

Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ B001RKFU4I
Publisher ‏ : ‎ Crown
Accessibility ‏ : ‎ Learn more
Publication date ‏ : ‎ January 16, 2009
Edition ‏ : ‎ Reprint
Language ‏ : ‎ English
File size ‏ : ‎ 9.4 MB
Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
Print length ‏ : ‎ 400 pages
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0307485052
Page Flip ‏ : ‎ Enabled

Best Sellers Rank: #23,742 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #6 in Political History (Kindle Store)
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William Strauss
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William Strauss (February 5, 1947 – December 18, 2007) was an American author, historian, playwright, theater director, and lecturer. As a historian, he is known for his work with Neil Howe on social generations and for the Strauss–Howe generational theory. He is also well known as the co-founder and director of the satirical musical theater group the Capitol Steps, and as the co-founder of the Cappies, a critics and awards program for high school theater students.
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Neil Howe
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Neil Howe is a historian, economist, and demographer who writes and speaks frequently on generational change in American history and on long-term fiscal policy. He is cofounder of LifeCourse Associates, a marketing, HR, and strategic planning consultancy serving corporate, government, and nonprofit clients. He has coauthored six books with William Strauss, including Generations (1991), 13th Gen (1993), The Fourth Turning (1997), and Millennials Rising (2000). His other coauthored books include On Borrowed Time (1988). And more recently Millennials Go to College (2007), and Millennials in the Workplace (2010). He is also a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he helps lead the CSIS "Global Aging Initiative," and a senior advisor to the Concord Coalition. He holds graduate degrees in history and economics from Yale University. He lives in Great Falls, Virginia.
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Customers find the book insightful, particularly in understanding generations and history, and consider it a must-read for Americans. The narrative receives mixed reactions - while some find it fascinating, others describe it as repetitive and monotonous. The book's comprehensiveness is also mixed, with some finding it highly detailed while others say it's hard to follow. Customers appreciate its presentation of historical cycles and find it worth the price. The accuracy receives mixed reviews, with some finding it disturbingly accurate while others question its validity.

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321 customers mention "Insight"275 positive46 negative

Customers find the book insightful and thought-provoking, appreciating its historical lessons and compelling exploration of historical cycles.

"...This is a time of individuality, questioning, dissent, and collapsing boundaries...." Read more

"...It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is..." Read more

"...understood to follow the correlation between historical events and the cycles of generations. It..." Read more

"...The text uses extensive cultural and historical material to support the chronological sequence of seven “Saeculum,” beginning with the Wars of the..." Read more

280 customers mention "Readability"240 positive40 negative

Customers find the book highly readable and engaging, describing it as a must-read for Americans. One customer notes it is particularly valuable for students of history.

"...It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is..." Read more

"...in understanding generations and history that it is definitely the best book I have read this year and probably this decade...." Read more

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"...But while the book is well written, and does back its contentions up with solid arguments, I found it to be a bit rambling at times; there were..." Read more

23 customers mention "Cycle length"23 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the book's presentation of historical cycles, particularly how it illustrates the cyclic nature of generations.

"...4 archetypes play a crucial role. The positioning of the archetypes depicted in the table above..." Read more

"...Seasonality is an important tool to help us understand this phenomenon and make sense of the time in which we live." Read more

"This book builds on the theory that history is cyclical, repeating after four 'turns,' each lasting 20-25 years...." Read more

"...The descriptions of the different generational archetypes and how they affect societal change is truly enlightening...." Read more

23 customers mention "Pacing"17 positive6 negative

Customers find the pacing of the book fascinating, with one noting it teeters on the edge between brilliant and crazy.

"...What an exciting time to be in theater. Everywhere, it seemed, theater companies worked passionately to rebirth society through performances. “..." Read more

"2002 review: Don't buy this book new. This book is built upon a very provocative and interesting thesis about the spiraling and repetitive nature..." Read more

"...history seems reasonably accurate; the thesis is sophisticated and intriguing...." Read more

"...What a turgid mess...." Read more

14 customers mention "Value for money"14 positive0 negative

Customers find the book worth its price, with one mentioning it provides valuable economic insights.

"...Even if the theory is not correct, the value of the content is so good it can get you thinking. Highly recommended for the thinkers out there." Read more

"...This book is valuable on two fronts: 1. The warning that is imparted to the readers to prepare for the crisis that is almost upon us. 2...." Read more

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72 customers mention "Narrative quality"34 positive38 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the narrative quality of the book, with some finding it fascinating while others describe it as boring and repetitive, noting that 50% of the content repeats itself.

"...just say this, unless you’re into this stuff, you’ll find this incredibly boring, purely speculative, and without the element of God, it really is..." Read more

"...The content is challenging, but interesting. I probably won’t buy the sequel due this." Read more

"...its contentions up with solid arguments, I found it to be a bit rambling at times; there were places where I didn't really understand the..." Read more

"...about what’s going on now and it looks at history and how history is repeating itself...." Read more

54 customers mention "Comprehension"25 positive29 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the book's comprehensiveness, with some finding it highly detailed and excellent in description, while others report it being hard to follow, tedious to read, and not succinct.

"...hypothesis with some good supporting evidence but too difficult to validate or reliably apply. Highlight is the prophetic claims." Read more

"...read in several years; however, it is so well explained the concepts are easy to grasp...." Read more

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16 customers mention "Accuracy"6 positive10 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the book's accuracy, with some finding it truthful and making disturbingly accurate predictions, while others find it unconvincing.

"...It also tends to generalize to support the thesis...." Read more

"...; and of archetypes (Prophet, Nomad, Hero and Artist) The authors make valid points and may make you think differently about the coming crisis and..." Read more

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"Detailed. No predictions, yet gives great insight to what lays ahead for our future" Read more

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Patrick D Hahn
History Doesn't Repeat, but It Rhymes
Reviewed in the United States on January 20, 2025
Format: KindleVerified Purchase

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

College professors have been complaining about how dumb students are, for at least as far back as Plato (and I’m sure this was old hat even then). If we really were getting dumber every generation, you’d think we would have devolved into slime molds by now. But we haven’t.

The answer to this seeming paradox is simple: history is not linear but cyclic.
Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe divide history into saecula, each saeculum lasting about eighty to a hundred years – roughly the length of a long human life. Each saeculum is divided into four turnings, each one corresponding to one of the four seasons: winter, spring, summer, and fall.

The first turning is a Crisis – corresponding to Winter. The generation that comes of age during a crisis the authors call "Heroes" (e.g., the “Greatest Generation” that won World War Two).

The Crisis is followed by a High – corresponding to Spring. This is a time of consensus, conformity, growth, and wealth creation, The last high was roughly the period between the end of World War Two and the assassination of Jack Kennedy – comprising the childhood of the Baby Boomers. The generation that comes of age during a high the authors call “Artists” (although I think “Builders” would have been a better term). This was the so-called “Silent Generation.”

The High is followed by an Awakening – corresponding to Summer. This is a time of individuality, questioning, dissent, and collapsing boundaries. The last Awakening began around 1964, around the time the Free Speech Movement at Berkeley began. The generation that comes of age during this period the author calls "Prophets." This was the Baby Boomer generation.

The Awakening is followed by an Unraveling – corresponding to Fall. This is a time of harvest, but also of scattering – typified by Gordon Gecko’s proclamation that “Greed is Good,” and also typified by a restlessness that leads many to wander the world instead of settling down and raising families of our own. The generation that comes of age during this period the authors call "Nomads."

And the Unraveling is followed by another Crisis.

If the author’s theory is correct, then we already are overdue for another Crisis. Or maybe it has already began, with the COVID-19 pandemic and the exploitation of that pandemic by our rulers to launch an all-out assault on human society. As I write these words, we have a terrible war in Ukraine, a terrible war in Gaza, a terrible war in Syria, and we are on the brink of war in the Korean peninsula and also in Taiwan – and any one of these conflicts could go nuclear.

And even though we are now on the brink of another Crisis (or maybe we’ve already gone over the edge) there is hope and comfort in the authors’ message. There is nothing to be gained by judging your accomplishments by those of your parents at the same age, because they came of age in a different world than you did. And since history is cyclic, no problem can ever be regarded as finally and completely solved – in fact, every solution brings new problems. So don’t worry about solving all the world’s problems, once and for all. Just worry about deploying your interests and talents as best you can, and, hopefully, little by little, each generation will leave the world a little better than as they found it.

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Tim Knight
Superb and Prophetic
Reviewed in the United States on August 13, 2012
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
After many instances of prodding from readers, I finally bought and read The Fourth Turning, and I'm sorry that I waited so long. It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is happening all around us.

I want to emphasize at the outset that this isn't some doom 'n' gloom book that came off the presses after all the calamities we've seen over the past decade. It is, in fact, a fifteen-year old book, and I imagine much of it was written around 1995 or so, during the feel-good Clinton years. When the book came out in 1997, the authors made clear that they were currently in the Third Turning, and that the Fourth Turning - the final quarter of a cycle that they postulate recurs throughout modern human history - was coming around 2005 or so.

Strauss and Howe write:

Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era - a turning - every two decades or so....Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, naturation, entropy, and destruction:

+ The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;

+ The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;

+ The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;

+ The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

As they anticipated the next "Turning", they referenced its start point around 2005, in the middle of the "Oh-Oh" decade (which I've now heard referred to as the "Naughts"):
The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

I would suggest, and I'm sure many would agree, that the attacks of 9/11 were the "sudden spark". Early in the book, the authors describe how there have, through human history, been three general ideas about the path of time in our lives - chaotic, cyclical, linear. The entire basis of the book is that the cyclical perception of the world is the accurate one, and the human species continues to move its way through this quartet of cycles, totalling about the length of a human life, called a Saeculum. We are presently in The Millennial Saeculum, which is broken down into these four parts:

+ The American High (1946-1964);

+ The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984);

+ The Culture Wars (1984-2005?);

+ The Millennial Crisis (which, when the book was published, was yet to arrive)

If you consider the four quarters of a Saeculum to the time "axis" of the grid, the other is made of the human archetypes, whose character depends on their generation as well as what portion of the Saeculum is currently running. The present archetypes are described as follows:

+ The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943-1960);

+ The 13th Generation (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981);

+ The Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982-?);

+ The Artist archetype is being born now

I'm a member of what they dub the 13th Generation, so-called simply because it is the 13th generation of Americans that they track.

Many of the predictions about the near-future that were offered are eerily accurate, whereas others are embarassingly wrong, such as the supposition that, to celebrate the year 2000, "Others will board a chartered Concorde just after midnight and zoom back through time from the third millennium to the second." Of course, I can't fault the authors for not anticipating the fiery end of the Concorde fleet!

I am, of course, most interested in the Crisis era, since that is supposedly what we're in the midst of living; the authors declare the Crisis can be constructed with this morphology:

+ A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood

+ Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.

+ The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.

+ The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order

Here again, I would think most would agree the 9/11 attacks would serve the definition of "catalyst" quite well. As the book draws to a close, it delves into greater detail about what could be forthcoming from the perspective of someone writing in 1997. I've emphasized a few items in bold:

Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.....a spark will ignite a new mood...In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party......the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:

+ A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons......Congress declares war.....Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes.

+ An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown.....Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.

As superb as these projections were, the authors hasten to add - ironically - "It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen." On the contrary, these guesses about the future (which, let's face it, required the authors to really go out on a limb) were excellent. They continue (although I am using ellipses to replace large chunks of text, since I'm not in the mood to re-type an entire book):

Time will pass, perhaps another decade, before the surging mood propels America to the Fourth Turning's grave moment of opportunity and danger: the climax of the Crisis.....the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

+ Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)

+ Social distress....

+ Cultural distress......

+ Technology distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos

+ Ecological distress....

+ Political distress....

+ Military distress.......

This is a thoughtful, well-articulated, and engrossing book. As with any text that makes broad sociological assertions and generalizations, the authors have opened themselves up to plenty of criticism about the plausibility of their prophecy. Taken as a whole, I think this book provide an enlightening blueprint of both the present and the near-future. I strongly recommend it.

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Ava
A feeling of belonging
Reviewed in Germany on August 10, 2024
Format: KindleVerified Purchase

I got this book to help me put these uniquely troubled times into perspective. I got more than that. It helped me make sense of my place in this world as an alienated, bewildered "nomad" who had wondered if i had imagined the world that was so different.

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Al Albrecht
Prepare-se
Reviewed in Brazil on March 25, 2021
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
Livro fantástico sobre os ciclos da história. Poderia ter sido escrito ontem. Muito atual e esclarecedor.

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Amazon カスタマー
20年ごとに節目がある
Reviewed in Japan on March 4, 2017
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
いま、「第四の節目、アメリカの預言」(The Fourth Turning, An American Prophecy) に注目している。このような考えかたもあるのかと、感心し、またちょっと畏怖の念も感じている。この本はおよそいまから20年前に書かれたものであるが、時代の転換期である現代をよく言い表している面が多い。「サイキュラム」という考えかた、そして、「節目」を鵜呑みにする必要はないが、少なくとも、いまは第四の節目「危機」の時代、古い秩序・価値観がくずれ、新しいものにとって置き換えられる時代、新しい価値観が植え付けられる時代の曲がり角にいる、ということを頭の片隅にいれておかねばならないかもしれない。

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Uffe
Löste sig till slut
Reviewed in Sweden on March 31, 2021
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
Uppdatering till min tidigare recension. Boken kom fram till slut efter lång leveranstid och betald tullavgift. Blev kontaktad av säljaren och fick tullavgiften återbetald vilket var bra gjort och snabbt hanterat.
Plus för hanteringen av Book Depository, men segt att beställa om varorna först ska fastna i tullen.
Amazon.se borde vara tydligare kring detta.

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Jasturgeon
Informative -- but a question about the fourth turning's Crisis climax
Reviewed in Canada on August 5, 2021
Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase
The book is highly informative and indeed provides the broad contours of what was to come in the 2000s as and 2010s. It's fascinating to go back in time and try to understand the view of the present 30 years in the past.

The 'catalyst' that occurs at or near the beginning of the fourth turning (after the Unraveling has fully unraveled) I took to be the Great Financial Crisis circa 2008/09. The climax, some have suggested, is the pandemic and broad social upheaval that has accompanied it.

I don't think that's the case, and the climax has yet to arrive. The book predicts the end-event(s) of the fourth turning would occur anywhere between 2020 and 2026 -- and recall, each of the previous fourth-turning climaxes were man-made *socially* transformative events, mostly wars (Revolution, Civil etc). You could make an argument that Jan. 6 is perhaps the transformative climax of this turning, but it's not a convincing one.

I would love to get the surviving author's opinion on whether or not the Crisis climax is yet to come, and whether he foresees the turning ending well, or badly. Both outcomes are possible as the book says; one will lead to a new optimistic and productive High period (post-WW2 boom) the other toward a new 'first turning' that will be quite different than our current era, and not for the better for most of us.

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The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny Kindle Edition

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5.0 out of 5 stars A feeling of belonging

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5.0 out of 5 stars Informative -- but a question about the fourth turning's Crisis climax

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History Doesn't Repeat, but It Rhymes

Superb and Prophetic

A feeling of belonging

Prepare-se

20年ごとに節目がある

Löste sig till slut

Informative -- but a question about the fourth turning's Crisis climax