"When Prophecy Fails" is a seminal book by social psychologist Leon Festinger, co-authored with Henry Riecken and Stanley Schachter. The book chronicles the authors' research on a religious cult that believed the world would end in a catastrophic flood on a specific date, December 21, 1954. The group, led by a woman named Dorothy Martin (a pseudonym for Marian Keech), claimed to have received prophecies from extraterrestrial beings that a great flood would wipe out most of humanity, but they would be saved through their faith and actions.
Festinger and his colleagues infiltrated the group to observe the dynamics of belief and group behavior when the prophecy failed to materialize. The central focus of the book is the psychological process of cognitive dissonance — the discomfort people experience when confronted with information that contradicts their beliefs or expectations. The group members' reaction to the failed prophecy served as a real-life laboratory for testing how people handle such dissonance.
When the expected end of the world did not occur, the group faced a dilemma: how could they reconcile their firm belief in the prophecy with the undeniable failure of the event? Instead of abandoning their beliefs, many members of the cult became even more fervent in their convictions. They interpreted the failure as a test of faith or as evidence that their prayers and actions had delayed the catastrophe. Some members even believed that the failure of the prophecy was a sign of divine intervention, an opportunity for the believers to spread their message to others.
The book describes how, rather than experiencing cognitive dissonance and abandoning the false prophecy, the group used various coping mechanisms to reduce the discomfort of conflicting information. The researchers concluded that people are often willing to engage in irrational behaviors and distortions of reality to protect their pre-existing beliefs. Festinger’s observations revealed how strong social and psychological forces, such as group cohesion, can prevent individuals from abandoning deeply held convictions, even in the face of contrary evidence.
When Prophecy Fails is influential in the field of social psychology, offering insights into cognitive dissonance, the psychology of belief, and how individuals and groups cope with disconfirmation. It also highlights the power of commitment and social pressure in sustaining belief systems, even in the face of obvious failure. The book remains a key work in understanding human behavior in relation to belief, group dynamics, and rationality.
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- Reviewed in the United States on September 17, 2017
Top reviews from other countries
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- Stephen OberauerReviewed in the United Kingdom on May 27, 2012
An essential book, but a little long. It is what it is.
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- Jennifer BurnsReviewed in Australia on August 29, 2022
Exactly as pictured
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