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272 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1940
... there are only a few times a year, possibly four or five, when you should allow yourself to make any commitment at all. In the interims you are letting the market shape itself for the next big movement.
... after forming an opinion with respect to a certain stock —do not be too anxious to get into it. Wait and watch the action of that stock for confirmation to buy. Have a fundamental basis to be guided by… Real movements do not end the day they start. It takes time to complete the end of a genuine movement… “Behind these major movements is an irresistible force.” That is all one needs to know. It is not good to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements. You risk the danger of clouding your mind with non-essentials. Just recognize that the movement is there and take advantage of it by steering your speculative ship along with the tide. Do not argue with the condition, and most of all, do not try to combat it.
Another mistake I made was to permit myself to turn completely bearish or bullish on the whole market, because one stock in some particular group had plainly reversed its course from the general market trend... when you clearly see a move coming in a particular group, act upon it. But do not let yourself act in the same way in some other group, until you plainly see signs that the second group is in a position to follow suit. Have patience and wait.
Just as markets in time will give you a positive tip when to get in—if you have patience to wait—they will just as surely give you a tip-off when to get out. “Rome was not built in a day,” and no real movement of importance ends in one day or in one week. It takes time for it to run its logical course.
Familiarize yourself with a stock, or different groups of stocks, and if you figure the timing element correctly in conjunction with your records, sooner or later you will be able to determine when a major move is due. If you read your records correctly, you can pick the leading stock in any group. You must, I repeat, keep your own records. You must put down your own figures. Don’t let anyone else do it for you. You will be surprised how many new ideas you will formulate in so doing; ideas which no one else could give you, because they are yours.