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Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible
This book originally appeared in 1962, and was based on essays written during the period 1959 - 1961. Since it was concerned with ultimate possibilities, and not with achievements to be expected in the near future, even the remarkable events of the last decade have dated it very little. But Arthur Clarke has gone over the book making corrections and comments where necessary in order to bring it right up-to-date. The author, amongst many fascinating excursions into what the future may hold, discusses the fourth dimension and the obsolescence of the law of gravity, the exploration of the entire solar system and the colonization of some of it; seas will be mined for energy and minerals, and asteroids will be pulled to Earth to supply needed materials; men, already bigger than they need be, may be bred smaller to be more efficient on less food.
211 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1962
About the author
Arthur C. Clarke
1,408 books10.6k followersStories, works of noted British writer, scientist, and underwater explorer Sir Arthur Charles Clarke, include
2001: A Space Odyssey
(1968).
This most important and influential figure in 20th century fiction spent the first half of his life in England and served in World War II as a radar operator before migrating to Ceylon in 1956. He co-created his best known novel and movie with the assistance of Stanley Kubrick.
Clarke, a graduate of King's College, London, obtained first class honours in physics and mathematics. He served as past chairman of the interplanetary society and as a member of the academy of astronautics, the royal astronomical society, and many other organizations.
He authored more than fifty books and won his numerous awards: the Kalinga prize of 1961, the American association for the advancement Westinghouse prize, the Bradford Washburn award, and the John W. Campbell award for his novel Rendezvous with Rama. Clarke also won the nebula award of the fiction of America in 1972, 1974 and 1979, the Hugo award of the world fiction convention in 1974 and 1980. In 1986, he stood as grand master of the fiction of America. The queen knighted him as the commander of the British Empire in 1989.
This most important and influential figure in 20th century fiction spent the first half of his life in England and served in World War II as a radar operator before migrating to Ceylon in 1956. He co-created his best known novel and movie with the assistance of Stanley Kubrick.
Clarke, a graduate of King's College, London, obtained first class honours in physics and mathematics. He served as past chairman of the interplanetary society and as a member of the academy of astronautics, the royal astronomical society, and many other organizations.
He authored more than fifty books and won his numerous awards: the Kalinga prize of 1961, the American association for the advancement Westinghouse prize, the Bradford Washburn award, and the John W. Campbell award for his novel Rendezvous with Rama. Clarke also won the nebula award of the fiction of America in 1972, 1974 and 1979, the Hugo award of the world fiction convention in 1974 and 1980. In 1986, he stood as grand master of the fiction of America. The queen knighted him as the commander of the British Empire in 1989.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 51 reviews
July 9, 2016
Arthur C. Clarke's "Profiles of the Future" is a fascinating exploration of the science and art of predicting the future in the context of science and technology. Clarke first studies predictions made in the past and tries to identify common mistakes and patterns. Armed with some takeaways he then focuses his intellect and imagination on charting future progress from 1960 (when the book was written!) to 2100. Reading the book in 2016 puts us approximately in the middle of this interval; Clarke gets some things right and some things wrong, but what's interesting are the trends in which the mispredictions occur and the humbling realization of just how difficult predicting the future is.
In particular, it is very clear throughout the book that Clarke is swept up in the 1950's era of excitement. Physical sciences were being completely transformed: X-rays, general relativity, quantum theory, the Manhattan Project, the splitting of the atom, our conquering of the skies (despite many predictions to the contrary), the space race that just kicked off... This era colors many of Clarke's predictions, and is also the crux of most of his mispredictions.
For how did the future unravel so far? Amazingly (and perhaps somewhat disappointingly) when you walk around the streets the world today looks pretty much the same way it did in 1960. All the innovation is in your pocket, and the vast digital universe we've built for ourselves, accessed by this new pocket appendage that we all possess. Clarke would probably be disappointed if we went back in time and told him that we'll land on Moon but then abandon it; that the space race will end and the space program will disintegrate; that the ISS is just barely avoiding a deorbit fate; that the speed of our passenger airplanes got stuck at ~500 mph; that no new amazing physical discoveries have been made (at least not on scale of proposed 4th dimension, or gravity manipulation). Instead we got the Internet, Google, iPhone/App Store, Bitcoin, Uber, Airbnb, Twitter/Facebook/Snapchat, AI. We don't have large, ambitious government projects, we have a thriving ecosystem of nimble startups. We don't _build_ *new* things, and when we do we do it is with bits, not atoms.
This is why one of the most interesting chapters of the book (other than the introduction section)is "Voices from the Sky", where Clarke anticipates revolutions in communications enabled by satellites. He posits an "orbital newspaper", video conferencing, he sees the coming globalization. But he doesn't quite recognize the magnitude of the economic value of these technologies, compared to the value of a lunar base. He doesn't extrapolate enough and anticipate the sharing economy. To his credit, another great chapter is "The Obsolence of Man" which predicts the rise of AI, but Clarke does not volunteer too many details.
Considered together, I think Clarke did poorly overall because he got the first order approximation of future developments wrong, attributing too high a weight and enthusiasm to the physical and not quite extrapolating enough the digital (but I would by no means wish to belittle his attempt). The interesting question is: What does the future look like 60 years from now? My takeaway of this book is that we should be extremely cautious to not get swept up in the craze of one era, extrapolating it widely and not accurately recognizing the economic value of some alternative paradigm. What might that be? Quantum computing? Nanotech? Biotech? AItech (hmm...)? Only Time will tell :)
Strongly recommended book to anyone who likes to think about the future history of our species! And easy 5/5.
In particular, it is very clear throughout the book that Clarke is swept up in the 1950's era of excitement. Physical sciences were being completely transformed: X-rays, general relativity, quantum theory, the Manhattan Project, the splitting of the atom, our conquering of the skies (despite many predictions to the contrary), the space race that just kicked off... This era colors many of Clarke's predictions, and is also the crux of most of his mispredictions.
For how did the future unravel so far? Amazingly (and perhaps somewhat disappointingly) when you walk around the streets the world today looks pretty much the same way it did in 1960. All the innovation is in your pocket, and the vast digital universe we've built for ourselves, accessed by this new pocket appendage that we all possess. Clarke would probably be disappointed if we went back in time and told him that we'll land on Moon but then abandon it; that the space race will end and the space program will disintegrate; that the ISS is just barely avoiding a deorbit fate; that the speed of our passenger airplanes got stuck at ~500 mph; that no new amazing physical discoveries have been made (at least not on scale of proposed 4th dimension, or gravity manipulation). Instead we got the Internet, Google, iPhone/App Store, Bitcoin, Uber, Airbnb, Twitter/Facebook/Snapchat, AI. We don't have large, ambitious government projects, we have a thriving ecosystem of nimble startups. We don't _build_ *new* things, and when we do we do it is with bits, not atoms.
This is why one of the most interesting chapters of the book (other than the introduction section)is "Voices from the Sky", where Clarke anticipates revolutions in communications enabled by satellites. He posits an "orbital newspaper", video conferencing, he sees the coming globalization. But he doesn't quite recognize the magnitude of the economic value of these technologies, compared to the value of a lunar base. He doesn't extrapolate enough and anticipate the sharing economy. To his credit, another great chapter is "The Obsolence of Man" which predicts the rise of AI, but Clarke does not volunteer too many details.
Considered together, I think Clarke did poorly overall because he got the first order approximation of future developments wrong, attributing too high a weight and enthusiasm to the physical and not quite extrapolating enough the digital (but I would by no means wish to belittle his attempt). The interesting question is: What does the future look like 60 years from now? My takeaway of this book is that we should be extremely cautious to not get swept up in the craze of one era, extrapolating it widely and not accurately recognizing the economic value of some alternative paradigm. What might that be? Quantum computing? Nanotech? Biotech? AItech (hmm...)? Only Time will tell :)
Strongly recommended book to anyone who likes to think about the future history of our species! And easy 5/5.
January 3, 2019
Dang it! Clarke's predictions turned out to be uncannily accurate. I have read tons of science fiction but some of them seemed completely reasonable and their extrapolations convincing! as the author mentioned "if you find my extrapolations convincing, I shall not have succeeded in looking very far ahead". Clarke explains what could be in-store if things now continue to evolve in the future!!
July 13, 2017
60- cı illərdə Klarkın elmi- fantastikaya, onun elmin inkişafındakı rolu, həmçinin gələcəklə bağlı şəxsi düşüncələrinin əks olunduğu bir kitab. Klark kahin deyil, onun bəzi düşüncələrinin indi bizə mənasız gəlməsi normaldır (bəzi düşüncələri də hədəfi tam on ikidən vurub). Kitabı XXI əsrə görə yox, Klarkın dövrünə görə nəzərə almaq lazımdır.
April 21, 2018
In which Arthur C Clarke predicts the future 50 years ago! Or, more accurately, Clarke looks at many of the various tropes of science-fiction and assesses how many could come true or are at least scientifically possible. Because this was published in 1963 – and contains some articles that were written as far back as 1958 – reading it is as much an exercise in assessing Clarke’s accuracy as it is appreciating his vision. (In fact, Clarke himself would do this in later editions of this book – the copy I have is from 1964, so I get to apply 55+ years of hindsight to everything here.)
Obviously – and like lots of futurists – Clarke gets a lot wrong, mainly in terms of timescale, technological details, commercial feasibility and/or optimism, but he also gets a lot right, and some of his “forecasts” hinged on future breakthroughs that haven't happened yet but still could one day. Cleverly, Clarke hedges his bets straight off with a couple of chapters reminding us of how the prediction business is a tricky one, and how so many self-styled prophets and even scientists get it wrong, either by failure of nerve or imagination. If nothing else, it’s interesting (at least to me) to see what people 50 years ago thought the future would look like based on what they knew at the time.
Obviously – and like lots of futurists – Clarke gets a lot wrong, mainly in terms of timescale, technological details, commercial feasibility and/or optimism, but he also gets a lot right, and some of his “forecasts” hinged on future breakthroughs that haven't happened yet but still could one day. Cleverly, Clarke hedges his bets straight off with a couple of chapters reminding us of how the prediction business is a tricky one, and how so many self-styled prophets and even scientists get it wrong, either by failure of nerve or imagination. If nothing else, it’s interesting (at least to me) to see what people 50 years ago thought the future would look like based on what they knew at the time.
July 28, 2015
Another mindbogglingly Arthur C. Clarke book. Now we can see some of the predictions are exaggerated and beyond the time schedule, but there are some good ones too. Like his predictions on cloud technology and 3D printers. His theory on interdenominational beings is also very fascinating. There were some theories which I have never heard before. Totally worth the time spent on this short narrative. Clarke never leaves his readers empty handed.
August 28, 2023
Clarke’s Three Laws:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
September 18, 2014
اول كتاب عن علم المستقبليات اقراءه و كنت صغيرا و اثر فيا الكثير
January 2, 2019
"Когато пишех този увод, в ръцете ми попадна рецензията на една доста скучна книга върху двадесет и първия век. Известният английски учен, автор на рецензията, намира книгата за изключително смислена и всички екстраполации на автора — за доста убедителни.
Бих желал да се надявам, че подобни обвинения никога няма да бъдат отправени срещу мен. Ако тази моя книга се окаже напълно разумна и всички мои екстраполации — убедителни, това значи, че на мен не ми се е удало да надзърна достатъчно далеч в бъдещето. Защото единственото нещо, в което можем да бъдем сигурни, е, че то ще изглежда крайно фантастично."
В "Профили на бъдещето", една от знаковите му научнопопулярни творби, Артър Кларк отправя смел и изпълнен с надежда поглед, към десетилетията (и вековете) стоящи пред човечеството. Най-голямо внимание е обърнато на транспорта, комуникациите, информационните технологии и промишлеността (суровините и материалите). Медицината и биологията са споменати бегло, тъй като самият автор признава, че не притежава нужната компетентност, за проследяването на бъдещите тенденции в тези сфери на познанието.
Написаното в книгата е просто един мисловен експеримент, прогностично упражнение... и все пак, няма как да не останем впечатлени от прозорливостта на Кларк и очаровани от нестихващия му оптимизъм.
У нас е преведено първото издание, от 1962г. През 70-те, 80-те и 90-те излизат нови, актуализирани. Би било интересно, да се хвърли един поглед на последното издание от 1999г. ("Millennium Edition"-a) и мислите на автора относно прогнозите му, 37 години по-късно.
Бих желал да се надявам, че подобни обвинения никога няма да бъдат отправени срещу мен. Ако тази моя книга се окаже напълно разумна и всички мои екстраполации — убедителни, това значи, че на мен не ми се е удало да надзърна достатъчно далеч в бъдещето. Защото единственото нещо, в което можем да бъдем сигурни, е, че то ще изглежда крайно фантастично."
В "Профили на бъдещето", една от знаковите му научнопопулярни творби, Артър Кларк отправя смел и изпълнен с надежда поглед, към десетилетията (и вековете) стоящи пред човечеството. Най-голямо внимание е обърнато на транспорта, комуникациите, информационните технологии и промишлеността (суровините и материалите). Медицината и биологията са споменати бегло, тъй като самият автор признава, че не притежава нужната компетентност, за проследяването на бъдещите тенденции в тези сфери на познанието.
Написаното в книгата е просто един мисловен експеримент, прогностично упражнение... и все пак, няма как да не останем впечатлени от прозорливостта на Кларк и очаровани от нестихващия му оптимизъм.
У нас е преведено първото издание, от 1962г. През 70-те, 80-те и 90-те излизат нови, актуализирани. Би било интересно, да се хвърли един поглед на последното издание от 1999г. ("Millennium Edition"-a) и мислите на автора относно прогнозите му, 37 години по-късно.
July 14, 2007
This book is an analyzation, topic by topic, by famed Sci-Fi novelist Arthur C. Clarke. It is a bit dated (written in 1970 I believe), but it is still a great and fairly accurate read to this day. Clarke discusses technological discoveries as proposed by science fiction novels, many of which have become reality years later. He details some of the most popular science fiction subjects, and presents a summary of the likelihood of each to come to fruition. I recommend this book to those that are interested in future technology and who would also like a brief overview of how many technologies imagined by science fiction authors have come to pass in our real world.
November 18, 2020
Anyone who has an active interest in what the future holds, which is just about everyone, makes predictions, extrapolates trends and postulates about the world ahead. Often history is named as the prime resource, but maybe the predictions of history are just as valuable.
Profiles of the Future was written in 1961 by prominent science fiction author Arthur Clarke. This time came after a tumultuous few decades for science and technology (not to forget the world wars): Einstein's special relativity, nuclear bombs, the conquering of the air with airplanes (many thought flying to be impossible in the early 20th century) and the space race just starting to kick up dust.
It is fascinating to read Clarke's predictions. Some are eerily accurate, his thoughts on electric and autonomous cars have either been realized or are considered as near future (motor in the wheels, route-planning based on which roads are least busy, fleet driving with interconnected autonomous cars). He postulates the impact of global satellite radio, which if we take the liberty to apply to internet, has been one of the major developments of the last few decades: the accessible information would lead to:
Replace "channel" to "app" and that sounds a lot like on demand media to me. I can sum up a very long list of impressive predictions, but I should also include some misses. The biggest might be the chapter dedicated to G.E.M's (Ground Effect Machines, also known as Hovercraft). The vehicle to remove the distinction between sea and land, render roads redundant, make everything cheaper, safer, faster, has largely been a let down. Ah well, maybe the future holds some hovercraft adventures for us. Additionally, Clarke points out multiple times the looming overpopulation we will have to expect. Although less mouths on this earth would certainly help with feeding them sustainably, the demographic transition in developed countries seems to have addressed overpopulation as our existential threat in quite an elegant way.
Overall, if you can get your hands on this book I would recommend you browse through it. It helps putting today's prediction into perspective and above all, it is a very entertaining read.
Profiles of the Future was written in 1961 by prominent science fiction author Arthur Clarke. This time came after a tumultuous few decades for science and technology (not to forget the world wars): Einstein's special relativity, nuclear bombs, the conquering of the air with airplanes (many thought flying to be impossible in the early 20th century) and the space race just starting to kick up dust.
It is fascinating to read Clarke's predictions. Some are eerily accurate, his thoughts on electric and autonomous cars have either been realized or are considered as near future (motor in the wheels, route-planning based on which roads are least busy, fleet driving with interconnected autonomous cars). He postulates the impact of global satellite radio, which if we take the liberty to apply to internet, has been one of the major developments of the last few decades: the accessible information would lead to:
"Orbital newspapers ... Thus when you want your daily paper, you will switch to the appropriate channel, press the right button and collect the latest edition as it comes in. "
Replace "channel" to "app" and that sounds a lot like on demand media to me. I can sum up a very long list of impressive predictions, but I should also include some misses. The biggest might be the chapter dedicated to G.E.M's (Ground Effect Machines, also known as Hovercraft). The vehicle to remove the distinction between sea and land, render roads redundant, make everything cheaper, safer, faster, has largely been a let down. Ah well, maybe the future holds some hovercraft adventures for us. Additionally, Clarke points out multiple times the looming overpopulation we will have to expect. Although less mouths on this earth would certainly help with feeding them sustainably, the demographic transition in developed countries seems to have addressed overpopulation as our existential threat in quite an elegant way.
Overall, if you can get your hands on this book I would recommend you browse through it. It helps putting today's prediction into perspective and above all, it is a very entertaining read.
September 1, 2023
This is one of the most interesting books I’ve ever read. Written 7 years before Neil Armstrong took his “one giant leap,” this book is filled with chapters predicting what might be possible in the future. It is both eerie and spectacular that most of Clarke’s predictions have come true. With the invention of the iPhone his prediction of small, handheld computers that run our lives has come to pass. He talks of artificial intelligence, cloning, lab grown biological substances, space travel and so much more.
In contrast, there are some things that he has stated are impossible that have come true. I think it is naïve for humans to say that certain things are impossible. If it can be imagined, it can usually be created. We may not have all the tools necessary to make these magical dreams a reality, but someday we will.
“They will have time enough, and those, aeons, to attempt all things, and to gather all knowledge. They will not be like gods, because no gods imagined by our minds have ever possessed the powers they will command. But for
all that, they may envy us, basking in the bright afterglow of creation; for we knew the universe when it was young.”
In contrast, there are some things that he has stated are impossible that have come true. I think it is naïve for humans to say that certain things are impossible. If it can be imagined, it can usually be created. We may not have all the tools necessary to make these magical dreams a reality, but someday we will.
“They will have time enough, and those, aeons, to attempt all things, and to gather all knowledge. They will not be like gods, because no gods imagined by our minds have ever possessed the powers they will command. But for
all that, they may envy us, basking in the bright afterglow of creation; for we knew the universe when it was young.”
May 3, 2022
This book felt like a personal conversation with ACC himself, and I adored it. He shows more of his humor and his compassion (speaking out against anti-gay legislation and gender equality in the early 60s!) in this collection than in his novels.
On display here, next to his humor and compassion, are visions for car-less cities, matter teleporters, 4th dimension lifehacks, and the next few stages in human evolution, to name just a few.
His chapter on "The Office of the Future" (written between 1958-62) was too close for comfort, post-pandemic.
In one chapter alone, he proposes detailed sketches of plots for The Matrix, Neuromancer and Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep. As well as dimensional concepts so wonderfully explored in The Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy. Clarke's mid-century musings are still affecting the genre to this day. Just when I thought I couldn't be a bigger fan of ACC, I went and read his non-fiction. Already looking forward to reading another one by him.
On display here, next to his humor and compassion, are visions for car-less cities, matter teleporters, 4th dimension lifehacks, and the next few stages in human evolution, to name just a few.
His chapter on "The Office of the Future" (written between 1958-62) was too close for comfort, post-pandemic.
In one chapter alone, he proposes detailed sketches of plots for The Matrix, Neuromancer and Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep. As well as dimensional concepts so wonderfully explored in The Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy. Clarke's mid-century musings are still affecting the genre to this day. Just when I thought I couldn't be a bigger fan of ACC, I went and read his non-fiction. Already looking forward to reading another one by him.
August 27, 2017
Considering that this book was written in the late 1960s, the ideas developed by the writer are in vivid detail and are very similar to how its all turned out. Arthur Clarke really let his imagination run completely wild in 13 different application areas ranging from the underground to space travel. Its probably not a book you can read end to end at one go as it all becomes a bit too overwhelming. I personally didn't read the last couple of chapters. One way would be to pick zour topics of interest from the index and read those chapters. Definitely worth reading though !
June 10, 2018
I had wanted to read this book for a long time after coming across Clarke's Third Law and tracking down it's source. For me, the first several chapters were the best part of the book. The reminders of the limitations people put on future discovery is a good thing to remember. The predictions are interesting, but less instructive. My copy is a used paper back published in 1984 and already so many things have changed or not happened as predicted. I don't see this as a fault. It is just the nature of predictions.
March 4, 2020
Мы становимся расой созерцателей, а не созидателей. И может статься, наша самодисциплина не устоит перед теми волшебными силами, которые еще будут вызваны нами к жизни.
Если так случится, то эпитафия нашей расе, написанная бегущими светящимися буквами, будет гласить: «Тем, кого боги хотят уничтожить, они сначала дают телевизор».
Чем выше разум, тем сильнее стремление к сотрудничеству. И если когда-нибудь будет война между людьми и машинами, нетрудно догадаться, кто ее начнет.
Снять проклятье с времен постройки Вавилонской башни.
Если так случится, то эпитафия нашей расе, написанная бегущими светящимися буквами, будет гласить: «Тем, кого боги хотят уничтожить, они сначала дают телевизор».
Чем выше разум, тем сильнее стремление к сотрудничеству. И если когда-нибудь будет война между людьми и машинами, нетрудно догадаться, кто ее начнет.
Снять проклятье с времен постройки Вавилонской башни.
February 24, 2023
I had an internal debate whether to go 3 or 4 stars, and would have taken 3.5, but ultimately went down to 3. I'm a huge fan of ACC fiction, but this may be the first non-fiction of his I ever read (at book length). Although at times thought-provoking and fun to see where ACC was nearly spot-on with some of his "predictions", and although I enjoyed a few of the humorous quips, ultimately the thing was a bit dry. Recommended more of an historical document of where science lay and looked forward several decades ago more than anything else.
May 29, 2015
A series of essays of and about forecasts of future technology.
The essays were originally written for Playboy in 1961, and were then collected into the original 1962 version of this book. Clarke revised the book in 1973, 1982 and 1999. I read the 1982 version not long after it was published and found it stimulating. On reading the 1999 edition, I have been surprised to learn that some of my ideas for my own extreme-far-future sf novel were not my own thoughts, as I had thought, but ideas I'd forgotten I'd read in the 1982 edition of this book.
The 1999 edition is, according to the acknowledgements, a revision of the original 1962 edition; though a quick glance through my 1980s copy indicates that some of the revisions for that edition have found their way back into this one. Presumably Clarke had it on hand while creating this edition, and added again the bits he thought worthy.
It contains some very interesting thoughts. Clarke's famous 'laws' are spelled out in this book--number one has been politically corrected for this edition:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist says that something is possible (s)he is almost certainly right. When (s)he says it is impossible, (s)he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Law 2 seems a bit glib, but 1 and 3 have a lot going for them.
The core idea of the book is that, if we want it enough, we will develop any technology we can imagine, so long as its operation need not contradict the laws of physics. Many foolish statements regarding the impossibility of various imagined technologies--heavier-than-air flight and space flight, for instance--arose from the financial and engineering difficulties involved in developing such technologies. But we wanted those technologies enough to find a way.
From this premise Clarke makes some striking predictions, of which I mention only a few:
- It will some day be possible to travel anywhere on Earth virtually instantaneously. That's a technology we will always want and there's no natural law that says we can't.
- Slightly more controversially, he imagines that in the more distant future we may be able to travel anywhere in the universe virtually instantaneously, by travelling in directions other than the three we currently know of; the indisputable speed limit of the universe is applicable to the space-time we know of, but not necessarily to other kinds of space we may gain access to in future.
- He imagines that we will be able to observe the past in perfect detail, but not to travel there.
- And that we will be able to go virtually anywhere in the universe, except inside stars, and planets with molten cores.
Many of these statements no doubt seem absurd in our present world. But the present state of affairs is just an instant in time, and need not be representative of the millions of future years in which human beings might exist. These speculations may apply not to our own civilisation, but perhaps to our remote descendants in more ambitious and better run civilisations.
Clarke's subtitle and introduction state that his intention is to explore 'the limits of the possible': in other words, not to predict the future, but to determine what we could achieve if we wanted to. What we actually achieve depends on what we want, and that arises from cultural factors that are virtually impossible to predict. The essays are at their weakest and their strongest when he oversteps this scope, and makes specific predictions.
He has retained an essay from the original edition, with amusing new pre- and post-scripts, to illustrate his own point about the 'hazards of prophecy': the one where he predicts that the hovercraft will have replaced the wheeled automobile by about 2010. I enjoyed the postscript where he writes about how he put his money where his mouth was and bought a hovercraft, and discovered its limitations. The specifically hovercraft-oriented aspects of the essay are plainly wrong, but some of the ideas--the obsolescence of the highway, the challenge of conducting search and rescue operations in extreme locations, and the difficulty of maintaining private spaces when anyone can drive over a fence--would still be applicable if ever flying cars became popular. And we all want one of those, don't we?
Another essay retained verbatim from 1962 is 'Voices from the Sky', about communications satellites. It's as spectacular a feat of prediction as you'll ever read. It more or less summarises the main technological features of our world. Clarke of course had a head start thinking about this topic, having invented the communications satellite in a paper published in the 1940s.
The remainder of the essays feel lightly revised, most overtly by the occasional mention of post-1960s technology like the Hubble Space Telescope. I haven't performed an exhaustive textual comparison to see exactly what differs between the three editions I own, but this 1999 edition feels more tinkered with than revised.
It's a shame Clarke didn't have the energy or desire to completely rewrite the book and create a new Profiles of the Future fully informed by 1990s knowledge. Instead it's closer to a well-curated museum piece than a living work of late 20th century speculation.
The essays were originally written for Playboy in 1961, and were then collected into the original 1962 version of this book. Clarke revised the book in 1973, 1982 and 1999. I read the 1982 version not long after it was published and found it stimulating. On reading the 1999 edition, I have been surprised to learn that some of my ideas for my own extreme-far-future sf novel were not my own thoughts, as I had thought, but ideas I'd forgotten I'd read in the 1982 edition of this book.
The 1999 edition is, according to the acknowledgements, a revision of the original 1962 edition; though a quick glance through my 1980s copy indicates that some of the revisions for that edition have found their way back into this one. Presumably Clarke had it on hand while creating this edition, and added again the bits he thought worthy.
It contains some very interesting thoughts. Clarke's famous 'laws' are spelled out in this book--number one has been politically corrected for this edition:
1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist says that something is possible (s)he is almost certainly right. When (s)he says it is impossible, (s)he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Law 2 seems a bit glib, but 1 and 3 have a lot going for them.
The core idea of the book is that, if we want it enough, we will develop any technology we can imagine, so long as its operation need not contradict the laws of physics. Many foolish statements regarding the impossibility of various imagined technologies--heavier-than-air flight and space flight, for instance--arose from the financial and engineering difficulties involved in developing such technologies. But we wanted those technologies enough to find a way.
From this premise Clarke makes some striking predictions, of which I mention only a few:
- It will some day be possible to travel anywhere on Earth virtually instantaneously. That's a technology we will always want and there's no natural law that says we can't.
- Slightly more controversially, he imagines that in the more distant future we may be able to travel anywhere in the universe virtually instantaneously, by travelling in directions other than the three we currently know of; the indisputable speed limit of the universe is applicable to the space-time we know of, but not necessarily to other kinds of space we may gain access to in future.
- He imagines that we will be able to observe the past in perfect detail, but not to travel there.
- And that we will be able to go virtually anywhere in the universe, except inside stars, and planets with molten cores.
Many of these statements no doubt seem absurd in our present world. But the present state of affairs is just an instant in time, and need not be representative of the millions of future years in which human beings might exist. These speculations may apply not to our own civilisation, but perhaps to our remote descendants in more ambitious and better run civilisations.
Clarke's subtitle and introduction state that his intention is to explore 'the limits of the possible': in other words, not to predict the future, but to determine what we could achieve if we wanted to. What we actually achieve depends on what we want, and that arises from cultural factors that are virtually impossible to predict. The essays are at their weakest and their strongest when he oversteps this scope, and makes specific predictions.
He has retained an essay from the original edition, with amusing new pre- and post-scripts, to illustrate his own point about the 'hazards of prophecy': the one where he predicts that the hovercraft will have replaced the wheeled automobile by about 2010. I enjoyed the postscript where he writes about how he put his money where his mouth was and bought a hovercraft, and discovered its limitations. The specifically hovercraft-oriented aspects of the essay are plainly wrong, but some of the ideas--the obsolescence of the highway, the challenge of conducting search and rescue operations in extreme locations, and the difficulty of maintaining private spaces when anyone can drive over a fence--would still be applicable if ever flying cars became popular. And we all want one of those, don't we?
Another essay retained verbatim from 1962 is 'Voices from the Sky', about communications satellites. It's as spectacular a feat of prediction as you'll ever read. It more or less summarises the main technological features of our world. Clarke of course had a head start thinking about this topic, having invented the communications satellite in a paper published in the 1940s.
The remainder of the essays feel lightly revised, most overtly by the occasional mention of post-1960s technology like the Hubble Space Telescope. I haven't performed an exhaustive textual comparison to see exactly what differs between the three editions I own, but this 1999 edition feels more tinkered with than revised.
It's a shame Clarke didn't have the energy or desire to completely rewrite the book and create a new Profiles of the Future fully informed by 1990s knowledge. Instead it's closer to a well-curated museum piece than a living work of late 20th century speculation.
February 18, 2019
It is interesting to read a book whose main topic is trying to predict the future that was written half a century ago. Arthur Clarke had some excellent ideas about the future where he got it very close, which means that people can predict trends of the future by careful analysis of today's technology.
On the other hand, he completely missed the digital revolution and the internet. If we extrapolate, this means the future holds for us surprises that we cannon even fathom.
On the other hand, he completely missed the digital revolution and the internet. If we extrapolate, this means the future holds for us surprises that we cannon even fathom.
March 12, 2019
I finished reading this interesting book, though I admit to skimming through the last few chapters. I suppose my attention-span just wasn't up to the task (though I suspect it's actually just my interest wasn't completely there). Clarke was obviously a very smart and deep-thinking man, and I believe I will try to read more of his stories in the future.
Good book on the whole. Very good, and very creative!
Good book on the whole. Very good, and very creative!
October 7, 2019
interesting to read this some 50+ years after it was written. he accurately predicts things like 3D printing and self-driving cars, but is way off on things like the spread of ground effect machines. but overall his ideas are sounds, even if his timetables often proved wrong, and he does a good job of rooting any future technologies in the hard-and-fast laws of physics but leaving lots of room open within those boundaries.
Read
June 5, 2019Enthralling, the way Arthur C. Clarke predicts the unfamiliar areas of science and technology which came to pass. Furthermore this was promulgated in 1963 and writings from this book features things as far as 1959....The accuracy is so farfetched yet it's reality. My eyes are wide open, awaiting further of his visions to be unlocked.
June 27, 2017
First few chapters were amazing, but after that gets too dated
June 19, 2018
ACC is outstanding again. His "bounds" on the future seem perfect. Especially when written in 1960!
April 5, 2020
Past read
July 5, 2020
Fantastic read for possibilities for future!!
March 31, 2021
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” - Arthur C Clarke
May 13, 2021
This book was amazing. Just amazing, uncanny and thought provoking.
January 21, 2022
ΝΤΡΟΠΗ ΤΩΝ ΕΚΔΟΤΩΝ, ΚΑΚΤΟΣ
ΦΤΗΝΙΑ ΣΤΗ ΜΕΤΑΦΡΑΣΗ, ΣΤΙΣ ΕΠΙΜΕΛΕΙΕΣ, ΣΤΟ ΧΑΡΤΙ, ΣΤΑ ΤΥΠΟΓΡΑΦΙΚΑ ΣΤΟΙΧΕΙΑ
ΦΤΗΝΙΑ ΣΤΗ ΜΕΤΑΦΡΑΣΗ, ΣΤΙΣ ΕΠΙΜΕΛΕΙΕΣ, ΣΤΟ ΧΑΡΤΙ, ΣΤΑ ΤΥΠΟΓΡΑΦΙΚΑ ΣΤΟΙΧΕΙΑ
November 24, 2022
Hello ! I want to read this book. But My condition of my pposition is not allowed if someone who have and send it to me I will pay in Chinese
November 9, 2015
An easy read, but a little dull. It avoided the usual problem of extrapolating and prophesying - being quickly proved wrong - by mainly discussing ideas and concepts Clarke located so far into the future they have still to come to pass. The book was written in the 60s, updated in the 70s, and last printed in the early 80s - so it is of course already old hat, and Clarke knew little about the future development of microprocessors, genetic engineering, and so on. Nonetheless, one of the entertainments of reading old books prognosticating about the future is seeing where, and how quickly, projections diverge from reality. By being very vague and long-sighted, both the amusement of bad prophecy and, as somebody with an interest in futurology, the humbling realisation that nearly all prediction (especially about the future) is doomed to failure was denied to me. There is at least, at the back of the book, a table in which Clarke actually does attempt to pin down, with dates, when we would colonize planets, or when there would be a World Brain, or when we would control weather, and so on. At last, I could again be reminded that even those lauded as technological prophets are doomed to prophetic failure.
The main reason for this failure is because, as usual, everything happens too soon. Extrapolations from current technology tend towards exponentiality. For example, it is easy to look at advances in genetics in 1970s and posit replicants in 2019 (Blade Runner). Similarly, for Clarke, the space race of the 1960s leads to the notion that the planets will be colonized by the 2020s, and space-mining will start in the 2030s.
There are occasional hits; the "World Library" by 2010 sounds a lot like Project Gutenberg, or Google, or Wikipedia. However, the mode of delivery is completely different, relying on satellite-based communications rather than the internet. Network-based computing is absent, as are pocket-sized computers. A form of GPS is foreseen, however.
Still, this is an easy enough read. It also contains one of the best explanations I've read about how difficult interstellar travel would be in terms of time and communication (even at near light speeds); and how it is likely that, as humans spread among the stars, each area of colonisation would be so remote from Earth it would soon develop independently, and perhaps over time, lose connection with the ancestral planet.
If you are interested in futurology and scientific prophecy, if you see this lying around a second-hand bookshop, it is worth picking up.
The main reason for this failure is because, as usual, everything happens too soon. Extrapolations from current technology tend towards exponentiality. For example, it is easy to look at advances in genetics in 1970s and posit replicants in 2019 (Blade Runner). Similarly, for Clarke, the space race of the 1960s leads to the notion that the planets will be colonized by the 2020s, and space-mining will start in the 2030s.
There are occasional hits; the "World Library" by 2010 sounds a lot like Project Gutenberg, or Google, or Wikipedia. However, the mode of delivery is completely different, relying on satellite-based communications rather than the internet. Network-based computing is absent, as are pocket-sized computers. A form of GPS is foreseen, however.
Still, this is an easy enough read. It also contains one of the best explanations I've read about how difficult interstellar travel would be in terms of time and communication (even at near light speeds); and how it is likely that, as humans spread among the stars, each area of colonisation would be so remote from Earth it would soon develop independently, and perhaps over time, lose connection with the ancestral planet.
If you are interested in futurology and scientific prophecy, if you see this lying around a second-hand bookshop, it is worth picking up.
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