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Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004
In 1982, the Dow hovered below 1000. Then, the market rose and rapidly gained speed until it peaked above 11,000. Noted journalist and financial reporter Maggie Mahar has written the first book on the remarkable bull market that began in 1982 and ended just in the early 2000s. For almost two decades, a colorful cast of characters such as Abby Joseph Cohen, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget, and Alan Greenspan came to dominate the market news.
This inside look at that 17-year cycle of growth, built upon interviews and unparalleled access to the most important analysts, market observers, and fund managers who eagerly tell the tales of excesses, presents the period with a historical perspective and explains what really happened and why.
This inside look at that 17-year cycle of growth, built upon interviews and unparalleled access to the most important analysts, market observers, and fund managers who eagerly tell the tales of excesses, presents the period with a historical perspective and explains what really happened and why.
528 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 2003
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December 23, 2021
Vivid story-telling about the rise and fall of a 90s tech bubble.
before reading this book, only I know about the roaring ninety is the madness of the crowd betting in high valuation tech stock, but in reality, there are individual investors, bankers, media, and policymakers who came together creating one of the biggest hype in the history of investing.
Of course, this time is not the same as in the past. but by understanding the 90s playbook and stories, maybe we can reach a better prediction of our time.
before reading this book, only I know about the roaring ninety is the madness of the crowd betting in high valuation tech stock, but in reality, there are individual investors, bankers, media, and policymakers who came together creating one of the biggest hype in the history of investing.
Of course, this time is not the same as in the past. but by understanding the 90s playbook and stories, maybe we can reach a better prediction of our time.
January 27, 2022
With the general craziness that we’ve seen in the markets since March 2020, I became highly interested in the 1990s bull market which ultimately culminated in the 2000 dotcom crash. A knowledge of historical episodes can after all help investors sidestep disaster. This book is a wonderfully written piece of financial history which details different aspects of 1980-2000 bull market from the perspectives of all the major participants - retail investors, institutional investors, analysts, investment banks, media, politicians and regulators. It seems like almost everyone had an interest in keeping the frenzy going, and some of the similarities in attitudes to today are uncanny.
Probably the big takeaway for me was that while it is obviously easy to identify a bubble in hindsight, when you are living through it is extremely difficult to not get caught up in the euphoria. The contrarian value investors of the time had to endure years of underperformers and literally everyone around them telling them that they just don’t get it, to ultimately be proven correct, but only after years of excruciating pain and many throwing in the towel. Investing is a tough game.
This review (along with others) was also posted on my blog:
https://punchcardinvestor.substack.com/
Probably the big takeaway for me was that while it is obviously easy to identify a bubble in hindsight, when you are living through it is extremely difficult to not get caught up in the euphoria. The contrarian value investors of the time had to endure years of underperformers and literally everyone around them telling them that they just don’t get it, to ultimately be proven correct, but only after years of excruciating pain and many throwing in the towel. Investing is a tough game.
This review (along with others) was also posted on my blog:
https://punchcardinvestor.substack.com/
July 17, 2022
It gives a rather social than technical view about the crisis and the years before. It lacks a more depth analysis.
Nice to understand the zeitgeist, but not the fundaments.
Nice to understand the zeitgeist, but not the fundaments.
January 11, 2018
den 10 januari 2018
12:39
• "In truth, a knowledge of history is an investor's best defense against error. Despite all the financial engineering that attempts to eliminate risk, cycles appear to be as inevitable as the seasons. Investors who understand these cycles are more likely to survive the winter of a bear market and to avoid its final phase - despair. They know that eventually, summer always returns, and more than that, they know that somewhere on the planet it is always summer." p. 384
• Individuals made up the market: "As early as 1992 Americans with incomes under 75000 dollars owned 42% of all publicly traded stocks." p.105
• Invest in neglected asset classes. When stocks are going down, gold/commodities is probably going up.
• "Even in the seventies, when both Treasuries and the S&P 500 disappointed, shrewd investors put their money to work by investing in real assets. From 1970 trough 1980, oil returned an average of 34,7%, gold 31,6%, US coins 27,7%, silver 23,7%, stamps 21,8%, Chinese ceramics 21,6%, US farmland 14%, and housing 10,2%, staying nicely ahead of inflation in a decade when the consumer price index rose by an average of 7,7% a year." p.354
• "For the greater the mania in one sector of a market, or in one stock market, the more likely that neglected asset classes elsewhere offer huge appreciation potential." p.357
• "The hard truth is that the market cannot grow that much faster than GDP. In March of 2000, stocks were valued at 181% of GDP - up from 60% at the beginning of the decade." p.360
• "After a bubble has burst, the classic pattern is for the market to trade sideways for years." p.361
• "There is always a disposition in people's minds to think the existing conditions will be permanent. When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make people believe that this is the prelude to a period of activity and advance. When prices are up and the country is prosperous, investors are even more loath to believe that the years of plenty will end." p.362
• Bear market stages: "the earliest stage is characterized by denial, increased anxiety, and fear. The second stage is panic. People suddenly say, 'I've got to sell'. The third phase is despair." p.364
• Primary trend of 10 to 20 years: "whether the tide is coming in or going out."
• "losers game, not winners game": In a bear market, this is what is most important: not making mistakes. The goal is to conserve capital. When a long bear market finally ends, those with cash will find bargains galore." p.367
• Taleb: Focus not on the odds, but on the size of the risk.
• Mistaking probability for certainty.
• Diversify and managing portfolio: "Getting the right asset class is so much more critical as a protector or a driver of your returns than focusing on individual stocks." Individuals make a big error by spending too much of their time worrying about the names, and too little thinking about how their portfolio is structured and whether they are diversified enough." p. 372
• Getting dividends important: "In 50-odd years of investing Richard Russell had never bought a stock that did not pay a dividend. Russell called compounding "The Royal Road to Riches"." p.381
• Wealthy mindset: The wealthy investor never feels pressured to 'make money' in the market.
Waiting for opportunity: "And, if no outstanding values are available, the rich man sits on his hands. 'Periods of inactivity' can be painful, as Warren Buffett acknowledged in the spring of 2003, but not nearly as painful as watching savings evaporate." p.382
12:39
• "In truth, a knowledge of history is an investor's best defense against error. Despite all the financial engineering that attempts to eliminate risk, cycles appear to be as inevitable as the seasons. Investors who understand these cycles are more likely to survive the winter of a bear market and to avoid its final phase - despair. They know that eventually, summer always returns, and more than that, they know that somewhere on the planet it is always summer." p. 384
• Individuals made up the market: "As early as 1992 Americans with incomes under 75000 dollars owned 42% of all publicly traded stocks." p.105
• Invest in neglected asset classes. When stocks are going down, gold/commodities is probably going up.
• "Even in the seventies, when both Treasuries and the S&P 500 disappointed, shrewd investors put their money to work by investing in real assets. From 1970 trough 1980, oil returned an average of 34,7%, gold 31,6%, US coins 27,7%, silver 23,7%, stamps 21,8%, Chinese ceramics 21,6%, US farmland 14%, and housing 10,2%, staying nicely ahead of inflation in a decade when the consumer price index rose by an average of 7,7% a year." p.354
• "For the greater the mania in one sector of a market, or in one stock market, the more likely that neglected asset classes elsewhere offer huge appreciation potential." p.357
• "The hard truth is that the market cannot grow that much faster than GDP. In March of 2000, stocks were valued at 181% of GDP - up from 60% at the beginning of the decade." p.360
• "After a bubble has burst, the classic pattern is for the market to trade sideways for years." p.361
• "There is always a disposition in people's minds to think the existing conditions will be permanent. When the market is down and dull, it is hard to make people believe that this is the prelude to a period of activity and advance. When prices are up and the country is prosperous, investors are even more loath to believe that the years of plenty will end." p.362
• Bear market stages: "the earliest stage is characterized by denial, increased anxiety, and fear. The second stage is panic. People suddenly say, 'I've got to sell'. The third phase is despair." p.364
• Primary trend of 10 to 20 years: "whether the tide is coming in or going out."
• "losers game, not winners game": In a bear market, this is what is most important: not making mistakes. The goal is to conserve capital. When a long bear market finally ends, those with cash will find bargains galore." p.367
• Taleb: Focus not on the odds, but on the size of the risk.
• Mistaking probability for certainty.
• Diversify and managing portfolio: "Getting the right asset class is so much more critical as a protector or a driver of your returns than focusing on individual stocks." Individuals make a big error by spending too much of their time worrying about the names, and too little thinking about how their portfolio is structured and whether they are diversified enough." p. 372
• Getting dividends important: "In 50-odd years of investing Richard Russell had never bought a stock that did not pay a dividend. Russell called compounding "The Royal Road to Riches"." p.381
• Wealthy mindset: The wealthy investor never feels pressured to 'make money' in the market.
Waiting for opportunity: "And, if no outstanding values are available, the rich man sits on his hands. 'Periods of inactivity' can be painful, as Warren Buffett acknowledged in the spring of 2003, but not nearly as painful as watching savings evaporate." p.382
July 31, 2020
Excellent review of the boom and bust which happened over a 20-year period. We tend to think of the 2000 crash as the end of the dot-com bubble, but it was more than that. Euphoria had taken hold of the stock market in general, and blue chip companies were also mostly overvalued.
Each crisis has its own characteristics. Otherwise it would be easier to see them forming. But some elements remain the same. You can draw many similarities between the crisis of 2000, and the one for 2008. Scarily, often I felt that the market environment in the late 1990s was similar as today.
What usually happens during a boom is that fundamentals of companies are forgotten. A stock is worth what the highest bidder is currently willing to pay, not the cash flows it will generate in the future. Historical P/E ratios do not matter anymore, for some reason. Retail investors pour into the market, as "stocks always go up". Investors believe that the FED is able to support the prices indefinitely by cutting rates and doing open markets operations.
The complicated part, as always, is understanding when the party will end. Many pros took a dim view on the market in 1996 and 1997, but that was 3 years before the crash. Meanwhile, some of them lost their careers, while others lost respect from others. No one likes a bear in a bull market. It is true that even if they switched to a more conservative portfolio some 3 years before the peak, they would have most likely outperformed someone who was entirely invested in stocks the whole time.
What is more, perverse incentives will always play its part. Stock analysts, brokerage firms, and investment bankers are better off telling us that stocks will go up. This generates business for them. Politicians also want the rally to continue, at least until the next election. All of this blocks beneficial regulation. During the 90s, earnings were manipulated by using legal but misleading accounting standards. Some honorable politicians tried to change it, but even the most obvious legislation may not pass if the lobbyists are strongly against it. One wants to throw in the towel after reading about such unfair nonsense.
Each crisis has its own characteristics. Otherwise it would be easier to see them forming. But some elements remain the same. You can draw many similarities between the crisis of 2000, and the one for 2008. Scarily, often I felt that the market environment in the late 1990s was similar as today.
What usually happens during a boom is that fundamentals of companies are forgotten. A stock is worth what the highest bidder is currently willing to pay, not the cash flows it will generate in the future. Historical P/E ratios do not matter anymore, for some reason. Retail investors pour into the market, as "stocks always go up". Investors believe that the FED is able to support the prices indefinitely by cutting rates and doing open markets operations.
The complicated part, as always, is understanding when the party will end. Many pros took a dim view on the market in 1996 and 1997, but that was 3 years before the crash. Meanwhile, some of them lost their careers, while others lost respect from others. No one likes a bear in a bull market. It is true that even if they switched to a more conservative portfolio some 3 years before the peak, they would have most likely outperformed someone who was entirely invested in stocks the whole time.
What is more, perverse incentives will always play its part. Stock analysts, brokerage firms, and investment bankers are better off telling us that stocks will go up. This generates business for them. Politicians also want the rally to continue, at least until the next election. All of this blocks beneficial regulation. During the 90s, earnings were manipulated by using legal but misleading accounting standards. Some honorable politicians tried to change it, but even the most obvious legislation may not pass if the lobbyists are strongly against it. One wants to throw in the towel after reading about such unfair nonsense.
January 22, 2015
History is one of the most important mediums to understand market workings and this book is a fine piece of financial history: detailed, showing different aspects of 1980-1990s markets (individual investors, fund managers, analysts, media etc.) and giving plenty of amusing numbers just to put the euphoria in perspective.
Highly recommended!
It's telling, though, how events are clear in retrospect and with hindsight. Great bull market of 1990ies is presented in "crystal clear" manner with each and every part falling into neat place in the bigger puzzle. However, in the epilogue author tries to forecast what's coming (starting from late 2003) and this part of the book is an obvious failure: every pundit agrees that cyclical bear market is not over, that any rise will be limited to 20-40% or so and will be a sucker rally, sees problems and threats where (with hindsight) there were none and so on. "It's hard to forecast, especially about the future". ;)
Highly recommended!
It's telling, though, how events are clear in retrospect and with hindsight. Great bull market of 1990ies is presented in "crystal clear" manner with each and every part falling into neat place in the bigger puzzle. However, in the epilogue author tries to forecast what's coming (starting from late 2003) and this part of the book is an obvious failure: every pundit agrees that cyclical bear market is not over, that any rise will be limited to 20-40% or so and will be a sucker rally, sees problems and threats where (with hindsight) there were none and so on. "It's hard to forecast, especially about the future". ;)
September 12, 2020
Excellent book. Good points from the Bull era, taken in context with the preceding decades.
Bookmarked quite a few as investment philosophy notes.
Would love to read a similar book of the times before, and after.
Bookmarked quite a few as investment philosophy notes.
Would love to read a similar book of the times before, and after.
June 23, 2018
I like value investing and this book supports that, but I just didn't like reading about some of the characters.
September 7, 2023
From the negative:
- I didn't like the form of the book presenting histories of given people during a bull market.
- Some of the "facts" where presented to support author statement. Eg author stated that "common true" is a true only in a given cycle, but might not be true over a longer term. as example author said a common true is saying that "in long term stock always outperforms bonds" and as example she given period from 1980 to 2003 were according to her bonds did exactly same as stocks.
She did not mention that stock total return index (with reinvesting dividends) did outperform bonds total index by far in the period of time
- Difficult English, was though read for me as a non-native English speaker
What I liked:
- Great history lesson how this bull market looked like which might be valuable lesson for current days. I find many commonalities of this bull market with crypto mania 2021/2022 for example:
a) analysts are treated as gurus. Journalist don't ask them difficult questions, just listen to them and admire
b) noone wants to listen to bad news - especially when one owns a stock, he wants to listen only positive information
c) because public is interested only in good news, media don't pay bad stories as there is no demand for it
d) analyst buying "call" options of stocks and later shilling them, so sell them later to public
e) massive wall street lobby in government, which was blocking any reforms to makes sure financial statement of companies where correct (companies where cooking their books)
f) none of the politician wanted bull maker to come to and end
g) if you are a "bear" during bull market, people will laugh at you if prices still go up. If you are too much of a bear you might even lose job
h) even though portfolio managers knew stock are overvalued, then cannot sit on cash as then if market would go up, investors and management would be angry why they do not get this kind of returns ( and a found manager would loose job, as he was trying to play safe and protects customers money). From career point of view is safer to invest in popular stocks. If it goes up then good. If everything tanks down, then you were wrong, but anyone else was wrong so you would not be blamed
i) mutual founds are not paid for good performance, they are paid on commission from assents under management. So they create a funds which are most popular just to attract capital. To earn money for investors and keep their assets safe was secondary priority
- Cooking books were done is several ways. Eg paying executives in stock options instead of cash (and this options were not shown on financial statements as a cost)
- putting operating expenses are one time expenses of restructuring. Which was not true and media did not pointed this out, even though it was knows it is cheating
Bubbles are caused by too much money chasing to few investments opportunities, which leads into allocation of capital, over investment and exceed demand
After FED started cutting interest rates after the crash, it did allow companies to access cheap capital for new investments, however companies did not want to invest anymore as they have over invested anyway before
After extended bubble / bull marker and then after the prolonged crash, people tend to not trust this asset anymore, so most likely opportonuties appear elsewhere. Eg after 2000 crahs opportunities aroused in gold, commodities, emerging markers (other currencies than dollar)
- I didn't like the form of the book presenting histories of given people during a bull market.
- Some of the "facts" where presented to support author statement. Eg author stated that "common true" is a true only in a given cycle, but might not be true over a longer term. as example author said a common true is saying that "in long term stock always outperforms bonds" and as example she given period from 1980 to 2003 were according to her bonds did exactly same as stocks.
She did not mention that stock total return index (with reinvesting dividends) did outperform bonds total index by far in the period of time
- Difficult English, was though read for me as a non-native English speaker
What I liked:
- Great history lesson how this bull market looked like which might be valuable lesson for current days. I find many commonalities of this bull market with crypto mania 2021/2022 for example:
a) analysts are treated as gurus. Journalist don't ask them difficult questions, just listen to them and admire
b) noone wants to listen to bad news - especially when one owns a stock, he wants to listen only positive information
c) because public is interested only in good news, media don't pay bad stories as there is no demand for it
d) analyst buying "call" options of stocks and later shilling them, so sell them later to public
e) massive wall street lobby in government, which was blocking any reforms to makes sure financial statement of companies where correct (companies where cooking their books)
f) none of the politician wanted bull maker to come to and end
g) if you are a "bear" during bull market, people will laugh at you if prices still go up. If you are too much of a bear you might even lose job
h) even though portfolio managers knew stock are overvalued, then cannot sit on cash as then if market would go up, investors and management would be angry why they do not get this kind of returns ( and a found manager would loose job, as he was trying to play safe and protects customers money). From career point of view is safer to invest in popular stocks. If it goes up then good. If everything tanks down, then you were wrong, but anyone else was wrong so you would not be blamed
i) mutual founds are not paid for good performance, they are paid on commission from assents under management. So they create a funds which are most popular just to attract capital. To earn money for investors and keep their assets safe was secondary priority
- Cooking books were done is several ways. Eg paying executives in stock options instead of cash (and this options were not shown on financial statements as a cost)
- putting operating expenses are one time expenses of restructuring. Which was not true and media did not pointed this out, even though it was knows it is cheating
Bubbles are caused by too much money chasing to few investments opportunities, which leads into allocation of capital, over investment and exceed demand
After FED started cutting interest rates after the crash, it did allow companies to access cheap capital for new investments, however companies did not want to invest anymore as they have over invested anyway before
After extended bubble / bull marker and then after the prolonged crash, people tend to not trust this asset anymore, so most likely opportonuties appear elsewhere. Eg after 2000 crahs opportunities aroused in gold, commodities, emerging markers (other currencies than dollar)
April 15, 2023
"Those who do not learn about history are doomed to repeat it."
Just as Mark Twain has said, "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes". After all, history is just a reflection of human psychology and desire, and it never changed much. Therefore, in order to live a wise life and see clearer of things, one really has to be humble to learn about history, and put everything that is happening in the present into the perspective of a much broader timeline.
As history has shown over and over again, for a period of time, every single person in it could be fanatic and let their greedy nature all out, without knowing it. The era of the internet bubble was a classic example and is most relatable to the world today.
If you didn't learn about that period in more depth, you wouldn't be able to believe it: the general public, the financial institutions, the 'premium' news outlets like the Wall Street Journal, Time, etc., the Fed, government, and even the president. All of them could be so incredibly wrong and, often purposely, misleading for YEARS, until the bubble finally burst. And they became history. And repeat.
What has remained unchanged in all of these fanatic moments is that the innocent public suffered while the powerful pocketed.
"This time is different" turned out to be the narrative every single time. First, it was the south sea and the great voyage in the 18th century; then it was the final peace after WW1; then it was the final final peace after WW2; then it was the revolution in travel with the invention of airplanes; then it was the revolution with the invention of the internet; then it was the revolution with the invention of Cryptocurrency; and now it is the revolution with the invention of AI......
History tends to repeat itself without learning a single lesson. And it will keep repeating forever. It's simply human nature to think they are special and let their lust go all out.
Aren't all these 'revolutions' true breakthroughs and actually pushing the human race forward? Absolutely. But it's often the greatest concepts that invite the biggest scams. The scammers can't sell you horseshit by itself, so they have to wrap gift paper around it to sell it. And there is never a shortage of people who want to get rich fast.
Everything happens for a reason. The news you view every single day, the salespeople, the financial advisors, the politicians, the businessmen, the fed, and even the president, all perfectly failed the innocent public during the 1990s. How did this even happen? It turned out people say or do things for a reason, and most people tend to put their interests above all else (surprise).
"Don't listen to people's logic. Look for their interests." This adage has therefore been an incredibly useful model to help one navigate this world, especially the one today with the number of distractions never seen before.
Try to look for others' interests more when they 'offer' you something. Nearly all of them have incredibly bad credibility just looking back a few decades.
Well then, what should I trust? The longer a thing stands the test of time, the more valuable and relevant it is.
This all sounds somewhat frustrating, tiring, and overwhelming. That's the unfortunate reality as long as human nature exists.
"Those who do not learn about history are doomed to repeat it."
Just as Mark Twain has said, "History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes". After all, history is just a reflection of human psychology and desire, and it never changed much. Therefore, in order to live a wise life and see clearer of things, one really has to be humble to learn about history, and put everything that is happening in the present into the perspective of a much broader timeline.
As history has shown over and over again, for a period of time, every single person in it could be fanatic and let their greedy nature all out, without knowing it. The era of the internet bubble was a classic example and is most relatable to the world today.
If you didn't learn about that period in more depth, you wouldn't be able to believe it: the general public, the financial institutions, the 'premium' news outlets like the Wall Street Journal, Time, etc., the Fed, government, and even the president. All of them could be so incredibly wrong and, often purposely, misleading for YEARS, until the bubble finally burst. And they became history. And repeat.
What has remained unchanged in all of these fanatic moments is that the innocent public suffered while the powerful pocketed.
"This time is different" turned out to be the narrative every single time. First, it was the south sea and the great voyage in the 18th century; then it was the final peace after WW1; then it was the final final peace after WW2; then it was the revolution in travel with the invention of airplanes; then it was the revolution with the invention of the internet; then it was the revolution with the invention of Cryptocurrency; and now it is the revolution with the invention of AI......
History tends to repeat itself without learning a single lesson. And it will keep repeating forever. It's simply human nature to think they are special and let their lust go all out.
Aren't all these 'revolutions' true breakthroughs and actually pushing the human race forward? Absolutely. But it's often the greatest concepts that invite the biggest scams. The scammers can't sell you horseshit by itself, so they have to wrap gift paper around it to sell it. And there is never a shortage of people who want to get rich fast.
Everything happens for a reason. The news you view every single day, the salespeople, the financial advisors, the politicians, the businessmen, the fed, and even the president, all perfectly failed the innocent public during the 1990s. How did this even happen? It turned out people say or do things for a reason, and most people tend to put their interests above all else (surprise).
"Don't listen to people's logic. Look for their interests." This adage has therefore been an incredibly useful model to help one navigate this world, especially the one today with the number of distractions never seen before.
Try to look for others' interests more when they 'offer' you something. Nearly all of them have incredibly bad credibility just looking back a few decades.
Well then, what should I trust? The longer a thing stands the test of time, the more valuable and relevant it is.
This all sounds somewhat frustrating, tiring, and overwhelming. That's the unfortunate reality as long as human nature exists.
"Those who do not learn about history are doomed to repeat it."
January 11, 2021
An excellent, and very honest, introduction to the stock market and investment.
I think the main lessons are: first, if you don’t have a big pocket to afford big loses don’t buy stocks. Second, go with treasury bonds, gold and maybe commodities. Third, don’t believe to all journalists, many of them work with a hidden agenda.
One interesting point is the inevitability of the crisis: is like a huracan, any effort to make it stop is futile, it’s better to be prepared for the worst.
I think one problem of the crisis is that you know is coming, but anyway you don’t believe it, you prefer not to see.
Maybe the next big step to avoid crisis is convert the crisis in part of our lives. Any 6 or 7 years you must create a crisis: close the banks, don’t borrow money, don’t buy or sell anything.
I’m totally ignorant of what we can do, but the best example is the Bible mandate of the 7 year release, we must release the debts of our neighbor and the banks must release debts of the debtors.
Is like a simulation of a huracan: you obviously can’t successfully create a powerful huracan, but if you have the way to simulate something similar you will be best prepared for the real one.
I think the main lessons are: first, if you don’t have a big pocket to afford big loses don’t buy stocks. Second, go with treasury bonds, gold and maybe commodities. Third, don’t believe to all journalists, many of them work with a hidden agenda.
One interesting point is the inevitability of the crisis: is like a huracan, any effort to make it stop is futile, it’s better to be prepared for the worst.
I think one problem of the crisis is that you know is coming, but anyway you don’t believe it, you prefer not to see.
Maybe the next big step to avoid crisis is convert the crisis in part of our lives. Any 6 or 7 years you must create a crisis: close the banks, don’t borrow money, don’t buy or sell anything.
I’m totally ignorant of what we can do, but the best example is the Bible mandate of the 7 year release, we must release the debts of our neighbor and the banks must release debts of the debtors.
Is like a simulation of a huracan: you obviously can’t successfully create a powerful huracan, but if you have the way to simulate something similar you will be best prepared for the real one.
November 16, 2021
- Often times, the latter stage of bull market is actually a "stealth bull" market: only few stock carried the entire index, while the rest of stock is actually falling
- Latter stage of the bull market, people deny any naysayers of the bull market: in fact, people were fired for pointing out the obvious, mocked for always predicting bear market to come (and the bear never came, until it did)
- It's wrong to assume that stock always go up - while it's true that over an extended period of time stock do go up, but chance of such occurrence in 10, 20 years block is not 100% - thus it's important to allocate asset accordingly to age
- Bear market doesn't occur overnight: in fact, it often extend for 2 years or more, until people are becoming perma bears
- Whenever there's an asset that's overvalued, there are bound to be assets that are overlooked and undervalued
- Latter stage of the bull market, people deny any naysayers of the bull market: in fact, people were fired for pointing out the obvious, mocked for always predicting bear market to come (and the bear never came, until it did)
- It's wrong to assume that stock always go up - while it's true that over an extended period of time stock do go up, but chance of such occurrence in 10, 20 years block is not 100% - thus it's important to allocate asset accordingly to age
- Bear market doesn't occur overnight: in fact, it often extend for 2 years or more, until people are becoming perma bears
- Whenever there's an asset that's overvalued, there are bound to be assets that are overlooked and undervalued
February 23, 2020
This book teach us so much about the stock market even reading information of past decades of market cycles it give us a lesson that nothing has change still the same and worse pure speculation and corruption no other way to describe it, but I can say that it is not only corruption creates disasters, investor help a lot to increase the house of cards ... very frustrated to read and realice that the snow ball keep going over and over, very good book
February 20, 2021
This well known book is now a classic, chronicling the extreme dot-com Era bull market, ending in 2000. The book is expansive, covering the market mania from 1982 to 2000. The author has provided references and notes extensively for every paragraph, making this a book a starting resource for readers who want to know about the time. The book tracks most of the important people involved/affected by the stock market's wild swing. This is overall a great book.
Read
August 4, 2019Re-read every x (5?) years ....
Sampling of notes:
Everyone knew that, over time, stocks always went up. [...] no matter what price you paid for the stock.
皆で渡れば怖くない
"stealth bear market"
Wanger: the proximate cause of the first avalanche can be anything, and, in the end, the trigger is unimportant.
Mauling of 1970, Nifty Fifty still stood tall --> '73/74, '82
Sampling of notes:
Everyone knew that, over time, stocks always went up. [...] no matter what price you paid for the stock.
皆で渡れば怖くない
"stealth bear market"
Wanger: the proximate cause of the first avalanche can be anything, and, in the end, the trigger is unimportant.
Mauling of 1970, Nifty Fifty still stood tall --> '73/74, '82
August 17, 2020
An ABSOLUTE REQUIRED read for anyone who invests in the markets. The history lessons alone are worth the read, ignoring the engaging narrative.
To invest in the market you need to understand past cycles and how secular cycles affect performance.
At the end of the day, what this hammers home, and the only thing that matters, is the price you pay. It's all about valuation.
To invest in the market you need to understand past cycles and how secular cycles affect performance.
At the end of the day, what this hammers home, and the only thing that matters, is the price you pay. It's all about valuation.
January 29, 2023
The book addressed a wide range of issues arisen from different actors' interest: the law makers, the policy makers, the bankers, the analysts, the fund managers, the retail investors, that all come into play to form a massive bubble in the US equity market in late 1990s.
Reads like a work of journalist rather than of an analyst. Overall a good book. I learned a few things.
Reads like a work of journalist rather than of an analyst. Overall a good book. I learned a few things.
September 27, 2023
We still have some months to go, but, provisionally, this is the book of the year. I love market histories, especially those that focus on accounting scandals and irrational exuberance. In particular, I like Mahar’s emphasis on the how lax accounting standards facilitate distortions in equity markets. Lots of useful information here. Confirmed many of my priors. Will review later.
December 9, 2019
Never underestimate a book recommended by the saint of omaha himself
Marvellous read. Explains really well the workings and incentives on which the wall street players function. It will also senstize retail investors abt the importance of cycles in market.
Marvellous read. Explains really well the workings and incentives on which the wall street players function. It will also senstize retail investors abt the importance of cycles in market.
September 20, 2020
Really interesting book that provides an emotive insight into the exuberance of the 1990s tech boom in the US. Good insights into human behaviour compounded by the media and supported by paid financial experts. Identifying what is fundamental versus a a narrative is critical in markets.
May 31, 2022
The majority of the book is breath taking but the last few pages are not worth reading if you do not time the market or try to predict the future. While discussing history is always fascinating, it was a mistake to try to wade into the unknown future.
June 26, 2022
Gives a pretty good description of the markets during 80-2000, but reading in 2022 feels like u know these things as cnbc media wall street reco conflict of interest politicians etc etc are not novelty now and have heard abt them enough anyways
June 17, 2017
Book recommended by Warren Buffett
January 21, 2019
Interesting to learn about the various financial cycles over an eventful period, but the book probably could have been 1/3 shorter.
December 16, 2020
A useful read into the secular bull & bear cycles and how they bias the instincts of investors. Other than that it is mostly topical.
December 19, 2020
Expected a lot more from this book with respect to the actual reasons, triggers and mechanics behind booms and busts. Instead this book was just "ok" and for the most part uninspiring.
April 10, 2021
This book is better than a movie! Loved it!
Read
August 31, 2021【陆】《大牛市1982-2004涨升与崩盘》
January 28, 2022
Really knowledgeable book. It teaches us so much about market cycles. My only gripe is that some parts were repetitive. The book could've been shorter and more concise.
June 27, 2022
One of the best books written in Finance !
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