A couple of weeks ago James Gross, co-founder of Percolate, had me speak at their Transition conference. I talked about Carlota Perez, her theories, and the transition to the deployment period that we are currently undergoing. The talk, as I remember it, (plus some stuff I had to cut for time) is be
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Heat Death: Venture Capital in the 1980s
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Betting on the Ponies: non-Unicorn Investing
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Uncertainty results in unpredictability, and two types of things cause unpredictability: novelty and complexity. Novelty uncertainty is when you can’t predict something because it has never been done before. You might not know know the existing conditions, all the actions you can...
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We are going to talk about building a strategy that helps you make decisions, even under uncertainty. It will help you decide which actions to take even though you won't know what the results of those actions are. You won't have a plan—something where action a leads to action b le...
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One of my portfolio companies raised a round a few months ago and I left their board. So, for the first time in a long time, I am not on any boards of directors. Since I no longer have anyone specific to offend, I have some advice. You’re running your board in a way that […]
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Bill Janeway recently said of something I wrote that my focus on uncertainty “seems rather untethered.” Janeway is one of the few people writing about venture capital who have been in the business longer than I have, so this made me sit back and think for a bit. I’ve spent a while...
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If you are competing against Nature, you might as well go big.
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If the point of a startup is to create excess value then the startup needs an innovation that can be defended over time. This means the team must have a strategy to defend their position once they have mitigated uncertainty.
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Every firm competing in an industry has a competitive strategy, either explicit or implicit… The emphasis being placed on strategic planning today…reflects the proposition that there are significant benefits to gain through an explicit process of formulating strategy, to insure th...
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This is completely irrelevant to the current moment. Enjoy. We build models to see what the future will hold and then tailor our actions to what the models tell us. If the models are accurately predictive then great. But sometimes the models are predictive only because we do what...
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I’m trying to write something longer than a blog post and to keep myself motivated I’m breaking it up into smaller pieces and publishing them here. So this should be read in conjunction with Schumpeter on Strategy and A Taxonomy of Moats. I expect that at some point the three will...
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