Skanda Amarnath ( Neoliberal Sellout )

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Executive Director - @employamerica

Striving for tighter labor mkts w/ @sam_a_bell, @ranavain, @tragicbios, & @ArnabDatta321. RTs/likes != endorsements

We all should take heart in how 2022H2 highlighted the possibility and plausibility of a 'soft landing'—disinflation without more unemployment—at odds with the rigid Phillips Curve views. Ultimately the probability of a soft landing hinges on the Fed's perception of its feasibility and plausibility.
www.employamerica.org
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Quits rate among the best out-of-sample predictors of wage pressure; think of wage increases as a hedge against labor turnover.

Quits rate keeps falling from Dec-2021 peak of 3%, now down to 2.6%, just 0.2% above pre-pandemic peak.

Labor mkt mostly cooling on its own...
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More problems with "Real Wages"
www.employamerica.org
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Now on the @employamerica blog:

March FOMC Preview: Two Cheers For The Fed's Commitment To Its Liftoff Guidance

www.employamerica.org/blog/march-fomc-preview/
See thread (7 tweets)
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THREAD (1/4): Price inflation can hurt but "real wage" is not a great gauge:
1. Consumption heterogeneity: We measure “real wages” top-down, not bottom up. We do measure financial balances bottoms-up: allows us to compare effect of prices on expenditures vs income gains (see QT) twitter.com/IrvingSwisher/status/1469306152622170117
See thread (6 tweets)
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THREAD 1/ - @ArnabDatta321 and I wrote a piece about how the federal govt can use health care policy to offset inflationary pressures. It's one of the few areas where they exert significant direct authority on pricing. bit.ly/3bsQyAv
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The Supply-Side Damage Has Begun: The Dark Side Of Fed Tightening
www.employamerica.org
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